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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November (view source)
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Publishing date: December 11, 2024 | Publishing date: December 11, 2024 | ||
==CPI expectations== | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 2.5% - 2.7% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 2.5% | |||
|1.5%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.5% | |||
|0.75% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.7% | |||
|0.75% drop | |||
|25% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 2.7% | |||
|1% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.3% | |||
|3.3% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.2% | |||
|0.2% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|2.6% | |||
|2.4% | |||
|} | |||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|October 2024 | |||
|2.56 | |||
|3.34 | |||
|0.18 | |||
|0.27 | |||
|- | |||
|November 2024 | |||
|2.67 | |||
|3.31 | |||
|0.28 | |||
|0.27 | |||
|} | |||
==References== | |||