Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November
Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm
Publishing date: December 11, 2024
Results
| Variable | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
- Headline CPI rose 0.3% in November, up from 0.2% in October but in line with the forecast.
- On a yearly basis, headline CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.6% in October but in line with the estimate.
- Core inflation rose 0.3% on the month and 3.3% y/y, both in line with the estimates.
- Supercore inflation rose 0.34%, up from 0.3% in October.
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
Range:
- CPI: 2.6% - 2.8%
- Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 2.6% | 1%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 2.6% | 0.5% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI at 2.8% | 1% drop | 25% |
| CPI above 2.8% | 2.5% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.7% | 2.6% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [1] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| November 2024 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| December 2024 | 2.81 | 3.27 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
