Investment Ideas

From InvestmentWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search

See also: Investment Ideas:Rejected | Investment Ideas:Previous

Forum: Moritz Portfolio allocation

Draft

Here is a List of our Investment Ideas.

We are currently almost exclusively positioned in stocks. As cross asset investors we are looking for opportunities across the board and experience in particular in crypto as well.

Earnings Season

1

Meta Platforms

Main article: Meta Platforms

See also: Meta Platform News | Meta Platforms:Sources | Meta Platforms:Discord | Meta Platforms:Sheet | Meta Platforms:Questions

Meta is our highest confidence pick and best investment idea. In our assessment it holds significant upwards potential as we expect matchmaking of content, advertising and users to accelerate in the future. We are betting on advances in ai, which is trained by significant time spent on Metas social media platforms.

Contrary to the broader sentiment we believe that short term video discovery "Reels" is a net positive for Meta as it holds fundamental value for users, increases engagement and social connections on Metas Plattforms by sharing this content.

While Meta is facing it's first serious competitor Tiktok we believe that it will be able maintain it's dominant position via their Family of Apps. We assess that a possible blockage of TikTok for geopolitical reasons could create tailwinds for Meta Stock that are currently not priced in.

Additionally we believe that Whatsapp has a large undermonetized potential, Meta has the ability to cut and control cost and their VR/AR efforts hold future potential which is not priced by the market.

Volkswagen

Main article: Volkswagen | Volkswagen:Position Changes | Volkswagen:Quarterly Results | Volkswagen:Deliveries | Volkswagen:Sources/ Volswagen:Discord / Volkswagen:Sheet/Volkswagen:Brand overview / Volkswagen:Questions / Volkswagen Annual General Meetings

Spotify

Full article

See also:Spotify:Sources / / Spotify:Discord / Spotify:Sheet/ Spotify:Questions

Deutsche Wohnen

Full article

See also:Deutsche Wohnen:Sources/ Deutsche Wohnen:Discord/ Deutsche Wohnen:Sheet/ Deutsche Wohnen:Questions

Vonovia

Full article: Vonovia

See also: Vonovia: Sources | Vonovia: Annual General Meetings

Sixt

Full article

See also:Sixt:Sources / Sixt:Discord / Sixt:Sheet/ Sixt:Questions

1&1

Full article

See also: 1&1:Sources / 1&1:Discord / 1&1:Sheet/ 1&1:Questions

Upwork

Main article: Upwork

See also: Upwork: Jobs posted in the Platform | Upwork:Sources | Upwork:Position Changes / Upwork:Discord / Upwork:Sheet / Upwork Versus Deel Full-time hiring / Upwork:Questions / Upwork:Technical Analysis / Upwork:Revenue Breakdown article / Upwork: Quarterly Results /Upwork: Seniority Level of Freelancers / Upwork: Impact of AI

The main value proposition in Upwork is in the enormous market they are tackling. Due to changes in information technology people all around the world are able to work together. This allows companies to outsource jobs that have been previously hard to outsource. At the same time the jobs market in the United States is very tight with over 11million open jobs and the western world is facing demographic change.

Upwork is uniquely positioned as they build the only reliable freelance platform which fosters long term cooperation between freelancers and clients.

As both freelancers and clients build their reputation on the platform there are strong lock in effects which create moats.

The costumer support in Upwork works very well and the tools they offer cover all needs for a successful cooperation between freelancer and client.

While upwork is currently not profitable as it reinvest's it's revenue in marketing and r&d we believe they have a clear path to profitability.

Overall it is a high risk - high reward investment.

Our main worries are on the execution side esp. in marketing and some processes which still appear to be choppy. Additionally LinkedIn marketplaces could become a serious competitor depending on their willingness to provide tools for payment and time tracking.

More Details Upwork is a leading freelance marketplace. It was founded in 2013 through a merger between ODesk and Elance. Unlike our other investments, Upwork’s founders are no longer with the company. However, its top executives, such as the chairman of the board, Thomas Layton, and the CEO, Hayden Brown, have been with the company for over 10 years.

The company generates around $ 500 million in revenue annually, with an average year-over-year growth rate of around 25%. However, despite its remarkable growth, Upwork is yet to attain profitability. This is mainly due to its huge spending on G&A, S&M, and R&D. Upwork spends over 80% of its revenue on these areas.

We believe that Upwork has a huge upside potential due to the shift by businesses and corporate leaders toward remote culture. Nevertheless, the freelance industry is growing at a good rate. Other things that will likely be a tailwind to the company include the desire of Gen Z to work as freelancers and macro headwinds that will force businesses to look for cheaper sources of labor. Nevertheless, we are betting on its brand marketing to start driving growth from next year.

Upwork faces stiff competition, especially from LinkedIn Marketplace Services. However, its products which include an hourly tracker, a great messaging tool, payroll service, consultations, project catalog, etc., protect it from competitors.

Our major concern with Upwork is its internal problems. During the third quarter of 2022, the company failed to achieve its client-signup target due to email issues. Additionally, there has been a rise in transaction losses. If Upwork addresses these issues as promised, it will continue seeing strong positive growth.