3,882
edits
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September (view source)
Revision as of 15:38, 11 October 2023
, 11 October 2023no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Forecasts expect the August CPI to show the headline index rose 0.6% in July, boosting the 12-month rate to 3.6% from 3.2% They see core CPI up 0.2%, same as last month, and brining y/y to 4.3% from 4.7 in July. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages are stil above historical averages and continue to increase in August, however at a slower pace. | |||
*Energy prices continue its increase in september, it will be specially important the increase in gasoline price due to its weigth in CPI index. | |||
*Food price index decline 2.1% m/m during august, -24% from the peak. | |||
*Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in August, but remain unchanged from previous month. | |||
*Housing prices recorded a 5th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.9% month-over-month in June of 2023 (0% y/y). However, rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, 1.2% year-over-year | |||
*Used Car prices has a small rebound in august, with a 0.2m/m increase. New cars ATP saw the same trend increasing 0.6%m/m. | |||
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.5% - 3.8% | |||
*Core CPI: 4.0% - 4.2% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.4% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|45% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.7% - 3.8% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.8% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | ===Consensus forecast=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| Line 56: | Line 94: | ||
|0.34 | |0.34 | ||
|} | |} | ||
== References == | |||