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Conference Board Leading Index: Difference between revisions
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== Developments == | == Developments == | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-08- | [[File:Screenshot 2023-08-17 083545.png|alt=|center|thumb|989x989px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators]] | ||
=== February 2023 === | === February 2023 === | ||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for theU.S. decreased by 1.0 percent in December 2022 to 110.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.1 percent in November. The LEI is now down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 1.9 percent contraction over the previous six-month period (December 2021–June 2022) | |||
* The recession signal was hit in August 2022. | |||
=== April 2023 === | === April 2023 === | ||
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* The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). | * The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). | ||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | * The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | ||
=== '''May 2023''' === | |||
“The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.” | “The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.” | ||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7, following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. | * The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7, following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. | ||
* The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2023</ref> | * The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2023</ref> | ||
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2, after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | |||
=== June 2023 === | === June 2023 === | ||
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* The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022). | * The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022). | ||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in June 2023 at 110.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in May. The CEI is now up 0.6 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—down from the 1.1 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | * The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in June 2023 at 110.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in May. The CEI is now up 0.6 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—down from the 1.1 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | ||
=== July 2023 === | |||
“The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain” said '''Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.''' “On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.” | |||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June. | |||
* The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 to January 2023). | |||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 110.5 (2016=100), after no change in June. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth rate recorded over the previous six months | |||
== References == | == References == | ||