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Conference Board Leading Index: Difference between revisions
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== Developments == | == Developments == | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2023- | [[File:Screenshot 2023-08-11 131140.png|alt=|center|thumb|989x989px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators]] | ||
=== February 2023 === | === February 2023 === | ||
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* The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2023</ref> | * The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2023</ref> | ||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2, after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | * The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2, after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | ||
=== June 2023 === | |||
“The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-july-2023</ref> | |||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May. | |||
* The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022). | |||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in June 2023 at 110.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in May. The CEI is now up 0.6 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—down from the 1.1 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. | |||
== References == | == References == | ||