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Talk:Podcasting and Audiobooks Industry: Difference between revisions
Talk:Podcasting and Audiobooks Industry (view source)
Revision as of 19:15, 3 February 2023
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Unfortunately, there is no current credible research that touches on podcasting revenue. Most of the reports are centered on podcasting ad revenue. But from what I have read and my estimates, there is no way the global podcasting revenue will exceed 4-$5 billion. The $26 billion refers to market size though(but according to their definition, that just refers to revenue). My question is should we use the $26 billion or our projections (using the Deloitte and IAB data) in the article? The latter sounds credible.--[[User:Aron|Aron]] ([[User talk:Aron|talk]]) 17:44, 3 February 2023 (UTC) | Unfortunately, there is no current credible research that touches on podcasting revenue. Most of the reports are centered on podcasting ad revenue. But from what I have read and my estimates, there is no way the global podcasting revenue will exceed 4-$5 billion. The $26 billion refers to market size though(but according to their definition, that just refers to revenue). My question is should we use the $26 billion or our projections (using the Deloitte and IAB data) in the article? The latter sounds credible.--[[User:Aron|Aron]] ([[User talk:Aron|talk]]) 17:44, 3 February 2023 (UTC) | ||
[[User:Aron|Aron]] It happens often in investment research that once you start to dig into numbers you realize that one of the sources you have used is completely wrong. Overall there are many wrong sources out there that's why it is so important to be critical, think along if numbers make sense and ad up. | |||
The $25b is an enormous number and i would have been very surprised if that was indeed the podcasting market size. | |||
The vendor of this report is unknown and his claims of $66b marketsize in 2027 seem even more wrong. | |||
On the other side deloitte and iab (pwc) are very credible sources. | |||
I've tried to look up the 750m number in your first link and think this number is referring to audiobooks not podcasts. | |||
Overall i like your method of making educated guesses but there are multiple pitfalls like the fact that a market size can never be accurately guessed and therefore two different institutes may have two slightly different guesstimates of the marketsize even in the same year. | |||
CAGR of 4% on 100b is 4b a year while CAGR of 30% on just 1b is 300m a year. So if Podcasts would have grown only 20-30% per year they couldn't have reached todays level. Interestingly iab claims that the podcasting market grew more than 70% per year in 2021. | |||
In our case (for Spotify) advertising podcasting is most relevant. Therefore i think we can focus on that market. Overall i believe advertising makes up likely a very large part of podcasting revenues (90%+). What we should also focus on is how large that market could grow. E.g. can it be a 10b or more dollar market? | |||
The 200m spotify figure as well as audiobook figures are interesting. Make sure to include both of them in the article and potentially change the title to podcasting and audiobook industry. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 19:15, 3 February 2023 (UTC) | |||