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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March (view source)
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Publishing date: April 10, 2024. | Publishing date: April 10, 2024. | ||
== CPI expectations == | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages had a nice surprice to the downside in february, but still remains sticky at ~4% y/y growth. | |||
*Oil and Gasoline both had a close to 5% increase during february | |||
*Food prices continue to decline with a -0.7% m/m | |||
*Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable. | |||
*Housing prices had another 0.3% m/m decline in December, but remains 5.5% y/y. Rents went up 0.2% in February. | |||
*Used car prices remained flat during January with a -0.1% m/m, and a -13% y/y. New car prices also declined decline 0.1% m/m, they are donw 2.2% y/y. | |||
The markets are now pricing cuts starting in June, and 3-4 cuts during 2024,[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-11 113940.png|center|thumb|478x478px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html|link=https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/File:Screenshot_2024-03-11_113940.png]]''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.0% - 3.2% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.8% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI 3.2% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.2% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
| | |||
|0.4% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
| | |||
|3.8% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
| | |||
|0.4% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
| | |||
|3.2% | |||
|} | |||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|March 2024 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|April 2024 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|} | |||
===Individual Institutions=== | |||
[[File:Eea4fe964a14ae1e4f654c9aa6a49274564db89d.jpeg|center|thumb|880x880px|link=https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/File:Eea4fe964a14ae1e4f654c9aa6a49274564db89d.jpeg]] | |||