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2024 Outlooks: Difference between revisions
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|Continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows. | | | ||
* Continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows. | |||
* Most major DM central banks are likely finished hiking, but under our baseline forecast for a strong global economy, rate cuts probably won’t arrive until 2024H2 | |||
* We expect returns in rates, credit, equities, and commodities to exceed cash in 2024 under our baseline forecast | |||
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|Morgan Stanley<ref>https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2024</ref> | |Morgan Stanley<ref>https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2024</ref> | ||