2024 Outlooks: Difference between revisions

2024 Outlooks (view source)

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-|Developed market economies slip into mild recessions. Weaker growth helps to push inflation back towards central bank targets. Interest rates are eventually cut, albeit reactively rather than proactively, and to levels still well above pre-pandemic lows.
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+* Developed market economies slip into mild recessions. Weaker growth helps to push inflation back towards central bank targets. Interest rates are eventually cut, albeit reactively rather than proactively, and to levels still well above pre-pandemic lows.
+* Overall, we would be cautious about the idea that economies can easily cope with interest rates of 5% or more in the US and UK, and 4% in the eurozone. We would expect the damage of higher interest rates to become increasingly evident in the consumer and business spending data in the coming months
+* It seems very unlikely that the central banks would cut pre-emptively without a significant slowdown in activity. Although a more cautious approach would mean that rate cuts come later than the market currently expects, we suspect the central banks will eventually cut further than predicted.
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 |[https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/macro-outlook-2024-the-hard-part-is-over/report.pdf Goldman Sachs]