3,882
edits
2024 Outlooks: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
== US == | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
| Line 7: | Line 7: | ||
!Unemployment | !Unemployment | ||
!Rates | !Rates | ||
!Dollar Index | |||
!EPS | |||
!SP500 | !SP500 | ||
!Notes | !Notes | ||
|- | |- | ||
|JPM<ref>https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/mi-investment-outlook-uk-en.pdf</ref> | |JPM<ref>https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/mi-investment-outlook-uk-en.pdf</ref> | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 23: | Line 27: | ||
| | | | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
| | |||
| | |||
|4700 | |4700 | ||
|Continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows. | |Continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Morgan Stanley<ref>https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2024</ref> | |Morgan Stanley<ref>https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2024</ref> | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 32: | Line 40: | ||
| | | | ||
|4500 | |4500 | ||
|Morgan Stanley strategists suggest an overweight across a broad range of bonds, an equal weight in both stocks and cash, and a significant underweight for commodities. | |Morgan Stanley strategists suggest an overweight across a broad range of bonds, an equal weight in both stocks and cash, and a significant underweight for commodities. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Bank of America<ref>https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/content/newsroom/press-releases/2023/11/bofa-global-research-calls-2024--the-year-of-the-landing--.html</ref> | |Bank of America<ref>https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/content/newsroom/press-releases/2023/11/bofa-global-research-calls-2024--the-year-of-the-landing--.html</ref> | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 41: | Line 51: | ||
|5000 | |5000 | ||
|Claudio Irigoyen, head of Global Economics, expects inflation to gradually move lower across the globe, allowing many central banks to cut rates in the second half of 2024 and avoid a global recession. Head of US Economics Michael Gapen expects the first Fed rate cut in June and the central bank to cut 25 basis points per quarter in 2024. | |Claudio Irigoyen, head of Global Economics, expects inflation to gradually move lower across the globe, allowing many central banks to cut rates in the second half of 2024 and avoid a global recession. Head of US Economics Michael Gapen expects the first Fed rate cut in June and the central bank to cut 25 basis points per quarter in 2024. | ||
|- | |||
|Ed Yardeni<ref>https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dozen-reasons-remain-bullish-2024-edward-yardeni-w5mwe%3FtrackingId=reBHOscYQvSS%252BgmGz7vsKg%253D%253D/?trackingId=reBHOscYQvSS%2BgmGz7vsKg%3D%3D</ref> | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|5400 | |||
|The economy remains resilient but inflation continues to fall closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target next year | |||
|- | |||
|Citi Global Wealth<ref>https://www.privatebank.citibank.com/doc/investments/outlook/Citi_Wealth-Outlook-2024.pdf.coredownload.inline.pdf</ref> | |||
|1.6% | |||
|2.5% | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|5.1% Growth | |||
| | |||
|Thesis sees a deceleration in economic activity during the early part of 2024, but no synchronized recession, followed by an economic acceleration later in the year | |||
|- | |||
|Well Fargo<ref>https://saf.wellsfargoadvisors.com/emx/dctm/Research/wfii/wfii_reports/Investment_Strategy/outlook_report.pdf</ref> | |||
|0.7% | |||
|2.5% | |||
|5.6% | |||
|4.75% - 5% | |||
|99-103 | |||
|$220 | |||
|4600-4800 | |||
| | |||
|} | |||
== Europe == | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+ | |||
!Company | |||
!GDP | |||
!Inflation | |||
!Unemployment | |||
!Rates | |||
!EPS | |||
!Stoxx 600 | |||
!Notes | |||
|- | |||
|Well Fargo<ref>https://saf.wellsfargoadvisors.com/emx/dctm/Research/wfii/wfii_reports/Investment_Strategy/outlook_report.pdf</ref> | |||
|0.6% | |||
|2% | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|} | |} | ||
== References == | == References == | ||