3,882
edits
2024 Outlooks: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 3: | Line 3: | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
!Company | !Company | ||
! | !GDP | ||
!Inflation | !Inflation | ||
!Unemployment | !Unemployment | ||
!Rates | |||
!SP500 | !SP500 | ||
!Notes | !Notes | ||
|- | |- | ||
|JPM<ref>https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/mi-investment-outlook-uk-en.pdf</ref> | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 14: | Line 16: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|Our macro “base case” on a 12-month horizon expects mild recessions ahead. | |||
|- | |||
|[https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/macro-outlook-2024-the-hard-part-is-over/report.pdf Goldman Sachs] | |||
|2.1 | |||
|2-2½% | |||
| | | | ||
|5% | |||
|4700 | |||
|Continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows. | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Morgan Stanley<ref>https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2024</ref> | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | |4500 | ||
| | |Morgan Stanley strategists suggest an overweight across a broad range of bonds, an equal weight in both stocks and cash, and a significant underweight for commodities. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Bank of America<ref>https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/content/newsroom/press-releases/2023/11/bofa-global-research-calls-2024--the-year-of-the-landing--.html</ref> | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | |5000 | ||
| | |Claudio Irigoyen, head of Global Economics, expects inflation to gradually move lower across the globe, allowing many central banks to cut rates in the second half of 2024 and avoid a global recession. Head of US Economics Michael Gapen expects the first Fed rate cut in June and the central bank to cut 25 basis points per quarter in 2024. | ||
|} | |} | ||
== References == | |||