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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November (view source)
Revision as of 18:15, 11 December 2023
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Publishing date: December 12, 2023 | Publishing date: December 12, 2023 | ||
==CPI expectations== | |||
Forecasts expect the November CPI to show that the headline index remained inchanged from october, with the 12-month rate to 3.1% from 3.2% in October. They see core CPI up 0.3%, bringing the y/y to 4% same as the october rate. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages saw an acceleration in its m/m increaed during november, remaining sticky | |||
*Energy prices continued its move down during november, which will benefit headline inflation | |||
*Food price remained unchanged during november, still -10% y/y. | |||
*Supply chain index increased during november, however still close to the 0 level. | |||
*Housing prices recorded a 8th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.3% month-over-month in september of 2023 (3.9% y/y). However, rents are down 0.9% month-over-month, down 1.1% year-over-year | |||
*Used Car prices had again a sigificant decline of 2.1% m/m in november, they are down -5.8% over the year. | |||
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year, and rate cuts starting on may 2024. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 2.9% - 3.3% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.9% - 4.2% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.0% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.0% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|45% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.2% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.3% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | ===Consensus forecast=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| Line 61: | Line 101: | ||
|} | |} | ||
===Individual Institutions=== | ===Individual Institutions=== | ||
== References == | |||