Sixt:Quarterly Results/2025 Q1

Management guidance and analysts estimate

Sixt's management guided for 2025 year-over-year revenue growth in the range of 5% to 10% (€4,202 to €4,402).
It guides for an EBT margin in the area of 10%, translating to an EBT in the range of €420.2 to €440.2

Key Items^[1]	Q1 2025	Y/Y	2025	Y/Y
Revenue	€830.8 million	6.5%	€4,264	6.5%
EBT	-€14.62	-46.6%	€449.2	34.5%

Buy, €135->€125: Warburg Research analyst Marc-Rene expects Sixt's Q1 revenue and pre-tax profit to grow year-over-year. He said he slightly lowered earnings forecasts for this year and next year due to somewhat lower expectations for business growth in the US.

Buy, €105: Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Kuhn said Sixt is likely to report a pre-tax loss of €13 million in Q1 compared to pre-tax profit of €27.5 million in the previous year.

Buy, €110: Analyst Christian Obst of Baader Bank said he removed Sixt from his "Top Picks" since the risks have increased with Trump's tariff policy which has direct impact on travel. He pointed out that international flights to the US. have already declined in the first quarter.
Buy, €110->€95: Analyst Constantin Hesse of Jefferies said a recession could result in lower consensus estimates for Sixt. He pointed out that pressure on volumes and prices are expected. He sees the stock as an attractive investment in the short-term.

Buy, €95: Raj Jilka of Jefferies said Sixt is likely to continue its solid growth, driven by market share gains in the US and key European markets.


Key Metrics^[2]	Q1 2025	Analysts estimates
Revenue	$2.43 billion	$2.52 billion
EPS	-$14.35	-$5.72
Revenue-international	$523 million	$559.88 million
Revenue-US	$1.91 billion	$1.96 billion
Vehicle utilization-US	69.6%	68.1%
Vehicle utilization-International	69%	69.7%
Revenue per day (RPD)-US	$64.92	$65.86

CEO Joseph Ferraro said travel demand played out as largely expected in Q1 2025, primarily due to leisure activity.
Ferraro said they saw a pullback in commercial demand as they transitioned through the quarter.
Ferraro said forward bookings are up year-over-year. "From a volume standpoint, forward bookings are up over prior year with continued growth in leisure and a pullback in commercial demand similar to what we saw in the first quarter," he said. "And when you look further out, twenty two days, thirty days, the reservation demand in those are up. And if you look back at the pandemic or even during the recessionary periods of 'eight and 'nine, those were down," he added.
Ferraro pointed out that their international regions remain popular destinations for cross border travel.

Ferraro said the demand for their used car in North America was strong during the quarter. "In fact, the number of risk vehicles we sold was the most in any quarter in our company's history. The used car residual market has performed well this quarter, partially due to the annual spring bounce and both new and used vehicle inventories being down, but also due to early reactions following the announced automotive tariffs," he said.
Ferraro said the residual value index for cars of their type is ahead of prior year highs. "The used car residual value index for cars of our type is currently well ahead of prior year highs and we plan to continue to capitalize on this favorable environment," he said.
Ferraro said the tariff situation is still evolving.

Revenue and EBITDA reflected expected softer year-over-year performance driven by calendar shifts, including one less year due to leap year in 2024 and Easter moving into April 2025.
Avis reiterated its EBITDA guidance for at least $1 billion in 2025.

Ferraro said their industry is highly competitive and that the intensity of the competition hasn't changed.
Ferraro pointed out that everyone has done a good job trying to augment demand with fleet size.