Match Group:Quarterly Results/2025 Q2

This article is a work in progress!

Management guidance and analysts expectations


Key metrics^[1]	Q2 2025						2025
	Lower-point	Y/Y	Mid-point	Y/Y	Upper point	Y/Y	Lower-point	Y/Y	Mid-point	Y/Y	Upper point	Y/Y
Revenue	$850 million	-1.6%	$855 million	-1.1%	$860 million	-0.5%	$3,375 million	-3.0%	$3,437.5 million	-1.2%	$3,500 million	0.6%
Adjusted operating income (AOI)	$295 million	-3.7%	$297.5 million	-2.9%	$300 million	-2.1%	$1,232 million	-1.6%	$1,255 million	0.2%	$1,278 million	2.1%
Adjusted operating margin	34.71%		34.80%		34.88%		36.5%		36.51%		36.51%

Match Group expects 2025 AOI to come roughly in the middle of the range when excluding approximately $25 million related to restructuring.
It expects AOI margin target of 36.5% when the $25 million restructuring expense is excluded.
It expects FX to be a tailwind to Q2 2025 results.
It expects a 1% tailwind from FX and a 1% headwind from the exit of Hakuna on Q2 revenue.
It expects costs associated with restructuring to be $17 million in Q2.
During the release of earnings in May 2025, Match Group said it has seen some weakness on à la carte (“ALC”) Tinder revenue in recent weeks due to macro slowdown. "We’ve started to see some impact to ALC revenue at Tinder in recent weeks, which we are monitoring closely. We are prepared to take pricing, merchandising, or other actions to minimize the impact to our financial performance should these trends persist," the press release reads.


Key metrics	Q2 2025	Y/Y	Q3 2025	Y/Y	2025	Y/Y
Revenue^[2]	$854.48 million	-1.1%	$889.91 million	-0.62%	$3,450 million	-0.8%
EPS^[3]	$0.58	20.8%			$2.51	12.6%

Equal Weight, $31->$32: Wells Fargo expects Match Group's Q2 results to meet expectations, with a possibility of higher guidance for Q3, partly due to the weakening of the US dollar. It pointed out that focus should be given to user engagement metrics as the company progresses under its new CEO.

Buy, $38: TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge said Match Group’s valuation (P/E: 13x) is attractive and Hinge’s outlook is solid (Revenue growth: 26% y/y). He pointed to the stabilization in Tinder’s revenue and workforce reduction that will lead to cost-savings of $100 million per year. He also acknowledged management’s commitment to maintaining 2025 outlook despite macro uncertainties.

Morgan Stanley expects volatility in key performance indicators and financial metrics for Match Group and Bumble in Q2 and 2025 due to product offensive and restructuring efforts.

Rascoff said one of his priorities is to unify the four brands into an organization that prioritizes innovation and user outcome.
Match Group will centralize key functions: "Today, we announced a reorganization, centralizing key functions, including select technology and data services, customer care and content moderation, media buying and international go-to-market functions, while still allowing each brand to maintain their independence and product road maps," Rascoff said.
Job cut reduction of 13% will save the company around $100 million in annual costs, including $45 million in 2025.
Plan to reduce stock-based compensation (SBC) by 15%.
They will reinvest the cost-savings in international expansion (including products).
Reduced 18% of Tinder workforce and eliminated 24% of Tinder managers.

Rascoff said they recently launched Double-Date feature in several European markets.
"Nearly 90% of Double Date profiles are from users under 29 and women using Double Date are 3x as likely to swipe right on a pair than on an individual," Rascoff said.
The Game Game on iOS (interaction assistant) tested in April with 0.75 million Tinder users.
Testing AI-enabled Experience in New Zealand and early signs are promising.
Testing new safety features i.e in collaboration with World ID and have seen more than 15% reduction in bad actor reports.
AI-Powered Recommendation Algorithm has driven 15% increase in matches at Hinge since launching in March.
Rascoff said they are operating at twice the pace they had in a couple of quarters ago, adding they have had two quarters of great product momentum.
Rascoff flagged that product turnarounds take time.

CFO Bailey said they expect user trends at Tinder to continue declining at a stable rate until product innovation bears fruit.

Excluding the exit of livestreaming business, Q1 revenue was down 2%.
Indirect revenue rose 31% y/y driven by increase in their top advertisers. Bailey doesn't expect this performance to repeat and they are reiterating their guidance for indirect revenue to be flat y/y in 2025.
Hinge's RPP rose 3% y/y driven by price optimization across several regions.
Cost of revenue declined 8% driven by lower IAP fees and reduced variable expenses from the shutdown of live streaming business mid of last year.
Selling and marketing expenses declined 5% due to lower marketing expenses at Tinder and Match Group Asia.
G&A increased 5% driven by severance and other employee compensation costs.
Product development costs rose 4% driven by SBC expense.

CFO Steven Bailey said 45% of their revenue comes from the US and two-third of that are in Apple App stores and they pay Apple around 27% in commission.
If they save 10% on Apple app store fees, that would be savings of around $25 million.
Apple-EPIC court ruling impact has not been included in the guidance.

Performance marketing has no limited impact on Tinder and Hinge. They mainly use brand marketing at Tinder and Hinge.