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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October (view source)
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Forecasts expect the September CPI to show that the headline index rose 0.1% m/m, with the 12-month rate to 3.3% from 3.7% in September. They see core CPI up 0.3%, same as last month, bringing the y/y to 4.2% from 4.1 in September. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages continue its slow decline in its rate of growth, however it remains still significant above historical averages | |||
*Energy prices saw a significant decline in prices in October, headlines inflation will mostly be benefited due to this move. | |||
*Food price index had a small decline of 0.7% in october, bringing the y/y rate to -15%. | |||
*Supply chain issues had a significant ease during october. | |||
*Housing prices recorded a 7th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 04% month-over-month in August of 2023 (2.6% y/y). However, Rents are down 0.7% month-over-month, down 1.2% year-over-year | |||
*Used Car prices had a sigificant decline of 2.3% m/m in october, they are down -4% over the year. | |||
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.2% - 3.4% | |||
*Core CPI: 4.0% - 4.3% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.4% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|45% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.7% - 3.8% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.8% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | ===Consensus forecast=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||