3,882
edits
Small Businesses: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
No edit summary |
|||
| Line 156: | Line 156: | ||
The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. An independent estimate of private-sector employment and pay, the report is based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market<ref>https://adpemploymentreport.com/</ref> | The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. An independent estimate of private-sector employment and pay, the report is based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market<ref>https://adpemploymentreport.com/</ref> | ||
== The CFO Survey == | == The CFO Survey == | ||
=== Q3 2023 === | |||
Financial decision-makers ranked monetary policy as their top business concern, as higher interest rates have curtailed spending at approximately 40 percent of companies. The CFO outlook is brighter for 2024, however, with higher revenues and hiring expected next year, along with smaller increases in prices and input costs.<blockquote>“Monetary policy appears to be further dampening business spending and hiring plans,” said John Graham, finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the director of the survey. “Overall, the weak (but still positive) growth in 2023, followed by improved prospects in 2024, suggests that policymakers may yet pull off a soft landing for the U.S. economy.” </blockquote> | |||
* Respondents expect employment growth to increase to nearly 4 percent in 2024, up from about 1 percent this year. | |||
* Price and unit cost growth are both expected to temper in 2024, including the wage bill. | |||
* Revenues are expected to rebound from an average of 3 percent growth in 2023 to more than 6 percent in 2024. | |||
* CFOs assign a 19-percent chance of negative GDP growth over the next 12 months, down from 24 percent in last quarter’s survey. | |||
* The CFO Optimism Index improved slightly this quarter, compared with last quarter. | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | |||
! colspan="2" |Q3 2023 | |||
! colspan="2" |Q2 2023 | |||
|- | |||
|'''Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years''' | |||
|'''2023''' | |||
|'''2024''' | |||
|'''2023''' | |||
|'''2024''' | |||
|- | |||
|Revenue | |||
|3.0% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|6.5% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|2.9% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|6.7% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|- | |||
|Price | |||
|5.9% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|4.3% | |||
(3.5%) | |||
|4.6% | |||
(3.8%) | |||
|5.0% | |||
(3.0%) | |||
|- | |||
|Unit Cost | |||
|6.8% | |||
(4.5%) | |||
|5.0% | |||
(4.0%) | |||
|6.8% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|5.7% | |||
(3.0%) | |||
|- | |||
|Employment (full-time) | |||
|1.1% | |||
(0.0%) | |||
|3.9% | |||
(2.2%) | |||
|6.1% | |||
(2.5%) | |||
|2.7% | |||
(1.5%) | |||
|- | |||
|Wage Bill | |||
|5.9% | |||
(4.5%) | |||
|5.4% | |||
(4.0%) | |||
|6.5% | |||
(5.0%) | |||
|5.9% | |||
(4.0%) | |||
|} | |||
<small>Note: Q3 2023 data in the table reflect results for 250 to 317 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023). Results from the Q2 2023 survey (May 24 – June 9, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 295 to 326 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values.</small> | |||
=== Q2 2023 === | === Q2 2023 === | ||