3,882
edits
Conference Board Leading Index: Difference between revisions
Conference Board Leading Index (view source)
Revision as of 19:45, 19 October 2023
, 19 October 2023no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 4: | Line 4: | ||
== Developments == | == Developments == | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-21 112824.png|alt=|center|thumb| | [[File:Screenshot 2023-09-21 112824.png|alt=|center|thumb|765x765px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators]] | ||
=== September 2023 === | |||
“The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-oct-2023</ref> | |||
* LEI for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. | |||
* The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023). | |||
* CEI for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in September 2023 to 110.9 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent increase in August. The CEI is now up 1.1 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, compared to 0.4 percent growth over the previous six months.[[File:LEI1023.png|center|thumb|810x810px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-oct-2023]] | |||
=== August 2023 === | === August 2023 === | ||
“With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board'''.''' “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. '''The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.”'''<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2023</ref> | “With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board'''.''' “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. '''The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.”'''<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2023</ref> | ||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. | * The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. | ||
* The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). | * The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). | ||
* The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in July. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—an acceleration from its 0.5 percent growth over the previous six months. | * The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in July. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—an acceleration from its 0.5 percent growth over the previous six months. | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-21 112946.png|center|thumb|672x672px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators]] | |||
=== July 2023 === | === July 2023 === | ||
“The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain” said '''Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.''' “On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-aug-2023</ref> | “The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain” said '''Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.''' “On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-aug-2023</ref> | ||