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Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions
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=== Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely === | === Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely === | ||
* Rym Momtaz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that Total announcement that they didn't found any oil in the part of Lebanon they were looking into may change the rules of the war(minute 16:22-22:16, Oct 13)<ref name=":8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gSsmno_qNY&t=61s</ref>. | |||
* According to Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran may feel that they are in a better position geographically to engage in the war with Israel (around minute 34:00)-October 13. That the tensions with China and Russia may validate their war against the west<ref name=":8" />. | |||
* Kenneth Pollack of American Enterprise Institute thinks Israel wants to remain ambiguous about Irans involvement in the attack until it has to capacity to deal with Iran and has decided on how it wants to deal with it. (Oct 16) <ref>https://www.youtube.com/live/5hNI5HlJe7o?si=zVJpJ8_FiroPefmz&t=1065</ref> | * Kenneth Pollack of American Enterprise Institute thinks Israel wants to remain ambiguous about Irans involvement in the attack until it has to capacity to deal with Iran and has decided on how it wants to deal with it. (Oct 16) <ref>https://www.youtube.com/live/5hNI5HlJe7o?si=zVJpJ8_FiroPefmz&t=1065</ref> | ||
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==== Reasons why Iran might not interfering ==== | ==== Reasons why Iran might not interfering ==== | ||
* If Iran uses Hezbollah, it would have lost two strategic proxies that ensures deterrence against Israel in the region (around 1:25, Oct 16)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxo5M9whBqY</ref>. | |||
* John Raine of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said exchanges of fire between Iran forces and Israeli forces would require huge strategic nerve by Iran, which they may not have; hence Iran want to leave room for a range of responses that support the war but fall short of what is asked for by Hamas(minute 28, Oct 13)<ref name=":8" />. | |||
* According to TLDR sunni Hamas is more of an strategic partner to shia Iran and not a proxy like Hezbollah. It is therefore less likely to intervene. (Oct 15) <ref>https://youtu.be/Po32UlRaV0c?si=WsZ0IwgyqrQMptq-&t=429</ref> | * According to TLDR sunni Hamas is more of an strategic partner to shia Iran and not a proxy like Hezbollah. It is therefore less likely to intervene. (Oct 15) <ref>https://youtu.be/Po32UlRaV0c?si=WsZ0IwgyqrQMptq-&t=429</ref> | ||
* Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war, according to Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | * Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war, according to Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | ||
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=== Reasons why Hezbollah might not get involved === | === Reasons why Hezbollah might not get involved === | ||
* Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Hezbollah is Iran's ultimate tool of deterrence; hence may only deploy it if they feel there is an existential threat (around minute 32, Oct 13)<ref name=":8" />. | |||
* Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | * Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | ||