Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions

Gaza-Israel War (view source)

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 [[File:Gaza.png|left|thumb|515x515px|Source: Aljazeera]]
-== Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal ==
-* The attack on Israel by Hamas is seen as a way to derail its peace deal with Saudi-Arabia<ref name=":5">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM9nwrSFVMM</ref>.
-* Saudi Arabia wants to make peace with Israel in return for military support from U.S against Iran<ref name=":5" />.
-* Saudi Arabia also wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, among other things<ref name=":5" />.
-* Demands of Palestines are not included in the deal<ref name=":5" />.
-== Analyst Opinions (topic centered) ==
-=== Israel wants to dismantle Hamas and will conduct a ground operation in Gaza ===
-According to multiple analysts like William Wechsler of the Atlantic council  (Oct 12) <ref>https://youtu.be/pp5DIMQEPpg?si=M6AteMFHR0duoLpz</ref> and Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Panetta Institute for Public Policy (Oct 12) <ref>https://youtu.be/wbJT4v8pCAg?si=nriP5QzS37-MyUOF</ref> there is a strong consensus in Israel to dismantle Hamas and all it's structures in order to prevent them from ever launching a similar attack again. In order to achieve this goal a ground operation is necessary and imminent.
-== Analyst Opinions ==
-=== Jonathan Panikoff, Atlantic Council ===
-* Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref>.
-=== William Wechsler, Atlantic Council ===
-* Without Iran Hamas would not have weapons<ref>https://www.dw.com/en/without-iran-hamas-would-not-have-weapons-william-wechsler-atlantic-council/video-67058604</ref>.
-=== Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council ===
-* Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel. "<ref>https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/</ref>
-* Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza."
-* It seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah.
-* The risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza.
-* The closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire.
-=== Analysts, Council on Foreign Relations (cfr) ===
-* Don't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened<ref>https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>.
-* Don't see direct war between Israel and Iran.
-* Expects the northern front to remain "stabilized"
-* It's not a question of whether Iran was involved, but a question of the extent of the involvement.
-=== Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy (FP) ===
-* Hezbollah may prefer to sit on the sidelines as they cheer Hamas<ref>https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/hezbollah-lebanon-hamas-war-israel-iran/</ref>.
-* If Hezbollah joins the war, it will complicate Israel's fight.
-* Hezbollah is controlled by Iran.
-=== Professor James A Russel, Department of National Security Affairs ===
-* He doesn't see the war spilling into wider regional conflict<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6wyeJWsVC0</ref>.
-=== Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) ===
-* Hezbollah playing cautious<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref>.
-* Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war.
-=== MP Bob Seeley, member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee ===
-* Iran wants to stop normalization of Israel<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gW1an21juc</ref>.
-=== Frank Figliuzzi, National Security Analyst ===
-* Hamas could not have pulled off the attack without the help of Iran<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhbLy11U8x4</ref>.
-=== Natan Sachs of Brookings Institute and Steven Cook of  Council on Foreign Relations ===
-* They are treating Hezbollah as Iran<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoNWCG_TUF8</ref>.
+== Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal ==
+* The attack on Israel by Hamas is seen as a way to derail its peace deal with Saudi-Arabia<ref name=":5">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM9nwrSFVMM</ref>.
+* Saudi Arabia wants to make peace with Israel in return for military support from U.S against Iran<ref name=":5" />.
+* Saudi Arabia also wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, among other things<ref name=":5" />.
+* Demands of Palestines are not included in the deal<ref name=":5" />.
+== Analyst Opinions (topic centered) ==
+=== Israel wants to dismantle Hamas and will conduct a ground operation in Gaza ===
+According to multiple analysts like William Wechsler of the Atlantic council  (Oct 12) <ref>https://youtu.be/pp5DIMQEPpg?si=M6AteMFHR0duoLpz</ref> and Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Panetta Institute for Public Policy (Oct 12) <ref>https://youtu.be/wbJT4v8pCAg?si=nriP5QzS37-MyUOF</ref> there is a strong consensus in Israel to dismantle Hamas and all it's structures in order to prevent them from ever launching a similar attack again. In order to achieve this goal a ground operation is necessary and imminent.
+=== Iran Involvement in the war ===
+* Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war, according to Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> .
+* William Wechsler of Atlantic Council said without Iran Hamas would not have weapons(Oct 10)<ref>https://www.dw.com/en/without-iran-hamas-would-not-have-weapons-william-wechsler-atlantic-council/video-67058604</ref>.
+* Ray Takeyh of Council on Foreign Relations (cfr) said it's not a question of whether Iran was involved, but a question of the extent of the involvement (Oct 9)<ref name=":6">https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>.
+* Ray Takeyh don't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>.
+* According to Daniel Byman of Foreign Policy (FP) , Hezbollah is controlled by Iran (Oct 9). <ref name=":7">https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/hezbollah-lebanon-hamas-war-israel-iran/</ref>
+* Frank Figliuzzi, National Security Analyst, said Hamas could not have pulled off the attack without the help of Iran (Oct 8)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhbLy11U8x4</ref>.
+=== Potential for a Northern-frontier war ===
+* Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref>
+* Natan Sachs of Brookings Institute and Steven Cook of  Council on Foreign Relations are treating Hezbollah as Iran (Oct 10)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoNWCG_TUF8</ref>.
+* Nicholas Blanford of Atlantic Council said Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel (Oct 10). "<ref>https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/</ref> He added that Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza." According to Blanford, it  seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah. Hence; the  risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza. He pointed out that the closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire.
+* Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref>
+* Ray Takeyh the northern front to remain "stabilized" and doesn't see direct war between Israel and Iran (Oct 9)<ref name=":6" />.
+* Daniel Byman of Foreign Policy (FP) said Hezbollah may prefer to sit on the sidelines as they cheer Hamas and if  they join, it will complicate Israel's fight (Oct 9)<ref name=":7" />.
+=== Potential for a regional conflict ===
+* Professor James A Russel, Department of National Security Affairs, doesn't see the war spilling into wider regional conflict (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6wyeJWsVC0</ref>.
+=== Strategic reasons for Hamas attack ===
+* MP Bob Seeley, member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said Iran wants to stop normalization of Israel (Oct 9) <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gW1an21juc</ref>.
 == References ==