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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August (view source)
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''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ||
Full Report: | Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf | ||
Publishing date: September 13, 2023 | Publishing date: September 13, 2023 | ||
== Key Takeaways == | |||
* Super core CPI increased during the month, due to a m/m increase in most service sectors, with some exceptions. Transportation services continue to be the primary driver of this category, which increased again in July. | |||
*Used cars CPI, which has been a significant contributor to goods inflation movements, decreased significantly again, in line with the recent decline in prices. New cars also show some moderation. | |||
*Oil index as expected was going to increase due to the jump in oil price, however, gasoline CPI (bigger contributor) is expected to be hit until august if oil price dont decline. | |||
*Shelter CPI has now 4 consecutive months of declines in the annual rate, and 2 consecutive months at only 0.4% increase . This moderation is expected to continue. | |||
=== Outlook === | |||
'''Fed Cleveland''' | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|Sep 2023 | |||
|3.81 | |||
|4.46 | |||
|0.77 | |||
|0.38 | |||
|} | |||
== Summary == | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-13 093303.png|center|thumb|631x631px|https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701944734804037792/photo/1]] | |||
* U.S consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.6% in August, in-line with the estimate and above the 0.2% growth in July. | |||
* Year-over-year, CPI rose 3.7% versus 3.6% estimate and above 3.2% in July. | |||
* Core CPI rose 0.3% in June, above 0.2% estimate. | |||
* Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.3%, in-line with estimate and below 4.7% in July. | |||
=== Contributors === | |||
* The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase, having risen 5.6% in the month, with gasoline rising 10.6%. | |||
* Food prices rose 0.2% in August while shelter rose 0.3%. | |||
* Used cars and trucks declined 1.2% in August. | |||
* Supercore services rose 0.37% on the month, the highest reading since March. | |||
* Indexes which increased in August include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care. | |||
* The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month. | |||
=== Categories watched by the FED === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Index | |||
!M/M | |||
!Y/Y | |||
!Prev. M/M | |||
!Prev. Y/Y | |||
|- | |||
|Core Goods | |||
| -0.1% | |||
|0.2% | |||
| -0.3% | |||
|0.8% | |||
|- | |||
|Core Services | |||
|0.4% | |||
|5.9% | |||
|0.4% | |||
|6.1% | |||
|- | |||
|Shelter | |||
|0.3% | |||
|7.3% | |||
|0.4% | |||
|7.7% | |||
|- | |||
|Services less shelter "super-core" | |||
|0.4% | |||
|4% | |||
|0.2% | |||
|4.1% | |||
|} | |||
== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Forecasts expect the August CPI to show the headline index rose 0.6% in July, boosting the 12-month rate to 3.6% from 3.2% They see core CPI up 0.2%, same as last month, and brining y/y to 4.3% from 4.7 in July. | Forecasts expect the August CPI to show the headline index rose 0.6% in July, boosting the 12-month rate to 3.6% from 3.2% They see core CPI up 0.2%, same as last month, and brining y/y to 4.3% from 4.7 in July. | ||