Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions

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 Past Developments: [[Wages]]
-Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4 percent, above market expectations of a 4.2% growth rate, and unchanged from June.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>
+Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent.
+*In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents,or 0.2 percent, to $33.82.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>
-* In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $33.74.
+*In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $29.00.
-* In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $28.96.
 ===2. Supply chain issues===
 Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
-* The GSCPI in July rose to -0.90 from a revised value of -1.14 in June; the previous release (before revision) for June had been reported at -1.20. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.
+The GSCPI in August remained virtually unchanged at -0.86.
 ===3. PPI===
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 The PPI serves as a leading indicator for the CPI, so when producers face input inflation, the increases in their production costs are passed on to retailers and consumers
+*The producer price index(PPI) rose 0.3% in July, slightly above the 0.2% estimate<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-11/us-producer-prices-rise-more-than-expected-on-services-strength</ref>.
-* The producer price index(PPI) rose 0.1% in June, below the expected 0.2% increase.
+*Yearly, PPI rose 0.8%, also slightly above the 0.7% estimate.
-* Year-over-year, producer price index rose 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
+*Core PPI was up 0.3% versus 0.2% estimate.
-* Core PPI rose 0.1% in June versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
+*Yearly, core PPI was up 2.4% versus 2.3% estimate.
-* Year-over-year, core PPI rose 2.4% below expectations for a 2.6% increase and also the smallest gain since January 2021.
+* The increase in PPI was mainly attributed to services, which rose 0.5% for the month, the largest increase since August 2022.
-* Prices for final demand goods were flat in June.
-* The increase in PPI can be traced to a 0.2% rise in prices for final demand services.
 ===4. Housing Market===
 Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
 Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.
+*Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. '''National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June''', while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.
-* Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. '''National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase in May''', while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City Composite gained 1.1% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 1.0%.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230725-1465262/1465262_cshomeprice-release-0725.pdf</ref>
+*The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. '''National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous mont'''h. The 10- City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month.
-* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, reported a '''-0.5% annual decrease in May''', down from a loss of -0.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.0%, which is a tick up from the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, same as in the previous month.
+*Regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, June’s three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%).  At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region.
-* '''Rents nationally are up 0.3% month-over-month, but are down 0.7% year-over-year.'''
 === 5. Food Prices ===
 Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
 CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
-*The '''FAO Food Price Index*''' (FFPI) averaged 123.9 points in July 2023, up 1.5 points (1.3 percent) from June but remaining 16.6 points (11.8 percent) below its value in the corresponding month last year.<ref name=":1">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
+*The '''FAO Food Price Index*''' (FFPI) averaged 121.4 points in August 2023, down '''2.6 points (2.1 percent) from July''', reversing the rebound registered last month and pushing the index as much as '''38.3 points (24.0 percent) below its peak reached in March 2022.'''
-*The FFPI’s rebound in July was led by a solid rise in the vegetable oils price index, partially offset by a significant decline in the sugar price index, together with small decreases in the price indices for cereals, dairy and meat.
+* The drop reflected declines in the price indices for dairy products, vegetable oils, meat and cereals, while the sugar price index increased moderately.<ref name=":12">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
 ===6. Energy===
 Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
-* Oil prices went up on average a significant 8.3% m/m in July 2023, going from $69.80 to $81.80. Still a -25.1% y/y/. <ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
+* Oil prices went up on average a significant 7% m/m in August 2023. Still  a negative 13.1% y/y/. <ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
-* Gasoline prices went up on average 0.7% m/m  during July 2023, and a -21.1% y/y.  <ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
+*Gasoline prices went up on average 6.7% m/m  during August 2023, and a -3.4% y/y.  <ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
-* Natural gas prices went up on average 17.2% m/m in July 2023, and -65% y/y. <ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
+*Natural gas prices went up on average 1.3% m/m in August 2023, and -70.7% y/y. <ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
-* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $80.59 at year end.<ref name=":422">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
+*Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $86.01 at year end.<ref name=":4222">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
 ===7. Car Prices===
 Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
+====Used====
-==== Used ====
+*Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) '''increased 0.2% in August from July'''. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/august-2023-muvvi/</ref>
+*The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 212.2, '''down 7.7% from a year ago.'''
-* Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) '''decreased 1.6% in July from June'''. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/july-2023-muvvi/</ref>
+*Over the month of August, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.3%, meaning market prices were slightly below MMR values.
+*The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 57.5%, which is much closer to normal for the time of year and higher than what was recorded over the last three months. For context, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.0% in August 2019
-* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 211.7, '''down 11.6% from a year ago.'''
-* Over the month of July, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.6%, meaning market prices were below MMR values.
-* Compared to last month, all segments were down except one, with sports cars being up by 1.6%. Pickups lost less than the industry month over month, down 0.6%, while vans, compact cars, and luxury lost the most, with declines of 3.2%, 2.8%, and 2.4%, respectively.
-* '''The average daily sales conversion rate declined to 48.9%, which was below normal for the time of year.''' For context, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.1% in July 2019.
 ====New====
-* A new vehicle’s average transaction price (ATP) '''in July declined 0.7% from June.''' The initial ATP estimate for July is estimated at '''$48,344'''.
+* A new vehicle’s average transaction price (ATP) in August '''increased only 0.6% from July at an initial estimate of $48,451'''.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-09-11-23/</ref>
-* The ATP gained a little ground on the average MSRP but remained below the average MSRP. '''The average price was up 0.4% from a year ago''', while the average '''MSRP declined 0.7% in July from June but was up 2.5% from a year ago.'''
+* The average price lost further ground on the average MSRP, falling to 99.1%, the lowest level since May 2021.
-* Automakers spent on average '''5.5% more on incentives in July to an average of $2,148 per vehicle''', up 83% from last year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to '''4.4%''', the highest level since September 2021.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-august-7/</ref>
+* '''The average price was up 0.1% from a year ago''', while the average MSRP increased 0.6% in August from July and was up 2.3% from a year ago.
+* Manufacturers’ '''average incentive spending increased 10.3% to $2,365''', up 113% from a year ago. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 4.9%, the highest level since September 2021.
 == CPI During Recession ==