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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)
Revision as of 18:09, 10 August 2023
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== Assessment by Magaly == | == Assessment by Magaly == | ||
Even though annual headline CPI is increasing as expected during the month of June, is encouraging to see some of the underlying numbers improving or moderating with month-over-month numbers staying at 0.2% for 2 consecutive months now. Is also | Even though annual headline CPI is increasing as expected during the month of June and super core also showed an increase, is still encouraging to see some of the underlying numbers improving or moderating with month-over-month numbers staying at 0.2% for 2 consecutive months now. | ||
Is also positive to see that shelter CPI is now over 90% of the increase in inflation since we know that shelter CPI will continue to moderate in the coming months, however, I remain cautious with this, as housing prices are reaching the peak once again, and that the moderation in CPI will most likely be more muted than originally expected. I have the opinion that housing and rent prices will eventually continue lower, but currently, they are on a trend higher, which should be monitored. | |||
August headline CPI forecasts are already showing an additional annual increase in July, due to the increase in energy prices, which should continue to put pressure on CPI as long as oil prices continue to increase or don't moderate. | August headline CPI forecasts are already showing an additional annual increase in July, due to the increase in energy prices, which should continue to put pressure on CPI as long as oil prices continue to increase or don't moderate. | ||
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* Super core CPI increased during the month, due to a m/m increase in most service sectors, with some exceptions. Transportation services continue to be the primary driver of this category, which increased again in July. | * Super core CPI increased during the month, due to a m/m increase in most service sectors, with some exceptions. Transportation services continue to be the primary driver of this category, which increased again in July. | ||
* Used cars CPI, which has been a significant contributor to goods inflation movements, decreased significantly again, in line with the recent decline in prices. New cars also show some moderation. | * Used cars CPI, which has been a significant contributor to goods inflation movements, decreased significantly again, in line with the recent decline in prices. New cars also show some moderation. | ||
* | * Oil index as expected was going to increase due to the jump in oil price, however, gasoline CPI (bigger contributor) is expected to be hit until august if oil price dont decline. | ||
* Shelter CPI has now 4 consecutive months of declines in the annual rate, and 2 consecutive months at only 0.4% increase . This moderation is expected to continue. | * Shelter CPI has now 4 consecutive months of declines in the annual rate, and 2 consecutive months at only 0.4% increase . This moderation is expected to continue. | ||