Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions

Even though anual headline CPI is increasing as expected during the month of June, is encouraginng to see some of the underlying numbers improving or moderating with month over moth numbers staying at 0.2% for 2 consecutive months now. Is also very positive to see that shelter CPI is now over 90% of the increase in inflation, since we know that shelter CPI will continue to moderate in coming months, however I remain cautios with this, as housing prices are reaching the peak once again, and that the moderation in CPI will most likely be more mutted than originally expected. I have the opinion than housing and rent prices will eventually continue lower, but currently they are in a trend higher, which should be monitor.  

August headline CPI forecasts are already showing an additional annual increase in July, due to the increase in energy prices, which should continue to put pressuare on CPI as long as oil prices continue to increase, or dont moderate.

The markets continue to price a pause in rates,and if that does not change, I think it will be the most likely outcome. Also probably imo the best outcome, because I dont think another hike is needed at this point.  

However, at the same time I think August CPI will be more important than the July print, and also the Jackson Hole Fed statements to determine september probabilities.

Key Takeaways from June CPI numbers

* Super core CPI increased during the month, due to a m/m increase in most service sectors, with some exceptions. Transportation servicies continue to be the primary driver of this category, which increased again in July.

* Used cars CPI, which have been a significant contributor to goods inflation movements, decreased again, in line with the recent decline in prices. New car also showing some moderation.

* Energy index as expected was going to increase due to the jump in oil price, however gasoline CPI (bigger contributor) is expected to be hit until august.