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Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions

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Consumer Price Index (view source)

Revision as of 14:58, 7 August 2023

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Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]


Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4% in June, the same pace as in May and slightly above market expectations of a 4.2% rise.  
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4 percent, above market expectations of a 4.2% growth rate, and unchanged from June.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>


* Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.4%, to $33.58 in June 2023, matching May's advance but slightly above market expectations of a 0.3% increase.
* In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $33.74.
* In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $28.83.
* In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $28.96.  


===2. Supply chain issues===
===2. Supply chain issues===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
*The GSCPI in June rose to -1.2 from a revised value of -1.56 in May; the previous release (unrevised) for May had been reported at -1.71. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
 
*There were significant upward contributions from Great Britain and Euro Area backlogs as well as United States and Taiwan delivery times.
* The GSCPI in July rose to -0.90 from a revised value of -1.14 in June; the previous release (before revision) for June had been reported at -1.20. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.
*Looking at the underlying data, the readings for Great Britain backlogs (the largest contributor to the upward move in the GSCPI this month) are above their historical average for the first time since February.
 
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
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The PPI serves as a leading indicator for the CPI, so when producers face input inflation, the increases in their production costs are passed on to retailers and consumers
The PPI serves as a leading indicator for the CPI, so when producers face input inflation, the increases in their production costs are passed on to retailers and consumers


* The producer price index declined by 0.3% in May, more than the 0.1% decline expected by Dow Jones.
* The producer price index(PPI) rose 0.1% in June, below the expected 0.2% increase.
* Core PPI rose 0.2% in line with the estimates.
* Year-over-year, producer price index rose 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
* The decline in PPI was mainly attributed to the 1.6% decline in prices for final demand goods.
* Core PPI rose 0.1% in June versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
* Year-over-year, PPI rose 1.1% in May versus 1.50% expected.
* Year-over-year, core PPI rose 2.4% below expectations for a 2.6% increase and also the smallest gain since January 2021.
* Prices for final demand goods were flat in June.
* The increase in PPI can be traced to a 0.2% rise in prices for final demand services.


===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
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Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.  
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.  


* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US increased 1.7% month-over-month in April of 2023, marking a third consecutive month of rising prices, a sign the housing market continued to strengthen. <ref name=":33">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index-mom</ref>
* Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. '''National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase in May''', while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City Composite gained 1.1% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 1.0%.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230725-1465262/1465262_cshomeprice-release-0725.pdf</ref>
* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US fell 1.7% yoy in April 2023, the biggest decline since April 2012, and compared to forecasts of a 2.6% drop.
* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, reported a '''-0.5% annual decrease in May''', down from a loss of -0.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.0%, which is a tick up from the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, same as in the previous month.


=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
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