Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 July 26: Difference between revisions

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 === Conferences Notes ===
 <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chief-powells-postmeeting-press-conference-5ed40b07</ref>
+==== Future Rate Deceisions ====
+* Haven’t made any decisions about any future meetings including the pace at which they would consider hiking,  It is certainly possible to raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted and it’s possible to choose to hold steady at that meeting.
+* June data broadly consistent with expectations, meaning the path of 2 rate hikes was still possible.
+* Rate cuts wont happen this year, and next year rate cuts will be dependent about the confidence that inflation is, in fact coming down to 2 percent goal.
+* There is a possibility of cutting rates at some point but continuting with QT as part of balance sheet normalization, but will be depending on where we are in the cycle
+==== Inflation ====
+* The June CPI report was welcome but it’s only one report, one month’s data, and cant make future decision only based on it, need consistent data in that direction.
+* Core inflation is actually a better signal of where headline inflation is going, because headline inflation is affected greatly by volatile energy and food prices. Core still remains high.
+* Powell dont see getting to 2 percent inflation all the way back to 2 until 2025 or so.
+* The worst outcome for everyone, of course, would be not to deal with inflation now, not get it done. Whatever the short-term social costs of getting inflation under control, the longer-term social costs of failing to do so are greater.
+==== Economic Growth  ====
+* At the margins, stronger growth going forward could lead over time to higher inflation. And that would require an appropriate response for monetary policy.
+* Seeing a strong economy still that created confidence they can go ahead and raise interest rates now for the third time since the March events
+* The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast. But given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.
+* SLOOS will come out early next week, and it’s broadly consistent with what you would expect, you’ve got lending conditions tight and getting a little tighter. You’ve got weak demand too.
+* There is lot of uncertainty around the length of the lags, but that’s just one component of the broader uncertainty that we face.
+==== Labor Market ====
+* Very likely to have some softening of labor-market conditions, consistent with having a soft landing. But you would have some softening in labor-market conditions that’s still likely as we go forward with this process.
+* By so many indicators, labor market demand is cooling. . But that it’s gradually slowing, it’s gradually cooling, that’s a good prescription for getting where we want to get.
+* Wages are probably an important issue, going forward. Labor market conditions broadly are going to be an important part of getting inflation back down and that’s why we think we need some further softening in labor market conditions.
 == Market Expectations ==