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Music Industry: Difference between revisions
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* Goldman Sachs is now predicting that the global music market will be worth '''$92bn in 2023 rising to $151.4bn by 2030'''. A bit below 2022 forecasts. The n'''et figures are $65.1bn in 2023 and $104.4bn in 2030.''' | * Goldman Sachs is now predicting that the global music market will be worth '''$92bn in 2023 rising to $151.4bn by 2030'''. A bit below 2022 forecasts. The n'''et figures are $65.1bn in 2023 and $104.4bn in 2030.''' | ||
* Its now forecasting an '''average CAGR of +8.6% for the recorded music industry between 2023 and 2030''', a figure which it calls “broadly unchanged” from its previous predictions. | * Its now forecasting an '''average CAGR of +8.6% for the recorded music industry between 2023 and 2030''', a figure which it calls “broadly unchanged” from its previous predictions. | ||
* The 2023 prediction includes $28.2bn of recorded music revenues, which is down from last year’s forecast of $30bn. However, the report predicts $8.8bn of publishing revenues this year, up from the $7.8bn it expected a year ago. As for the live market, Goldman Sachs thinks that will be worth $28.1bn in 2023, compared to its previous prediction of $29.1bn. | * The 2023 prediction includes $28.2bn of recorded music revenues, which is down from last year’s forecast of $30bn. However, the report predicts $8.8bn of publishing revenues this year, up from the $7.8bn it expected a year ago. As for the live market, Goldman Sachs thinks that will be worth $28.1bn in 2023, compared to its previous prediction of $29.1bn. | ||
* Looking forward, the company’s $104.4bn of predicted net revenues in 2030 includes $50.1bn from recorded music, $14.7bn from publishing and $39.5bn from the live industry. | * Looking forward, the company’s $104.4bn of predicted net revenues in 2030 includes $50.1bn from recorded music, $14.7bn from publishing and $39.5bn from the live industry. | ||
* '''Emerging platforms category accounted for 6% of global recorded music revenues in 2022''', which based on its figure of $26.2bn for the latter means around $1.57bn. It estimates that Facebook accounted for 23% of that revenue (so around $361m) followed by gaming generally (19% – $298m); Peloton (17% – $267m); TikTok (14% – $220m); YouTube Shorts (8% – $126m); Snapchat Spotlight (7% – $110m); and Instagram Reels (5% – $78.5m). | * '''Emerging platforms category accounted for 6% of global recorded music revenues in 2022''', which based on its figure of $26.2bn for the latter means around $1.57bn. It estimates that Facebook accounted for 23% of that revenue (so around $361m) followed by gaming generally (19% – $298m); Peloton (17% – $267m); TikTok (14% – $220m); YouTube Shorts (8% – $126m); Snapchat Spotlight (7% – $110m); and Instagram Reels (5% – $78.5m). | ||
* It predicts tha'''t ’emerging platforms’ will account for 14% of global recorded music revenue (up from 6% last year) by 2030.''' | * It predicts tha'''t ’emerging platforms’ will account for 14% of global recorded music revenue (up from 6% last year) by 2030.''' | ||
'''Streaming''' | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-18 151758.png|center|thumb|798x798px|https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/peloton-paid-the-record-industry-more-than-tiktok-last-year-says-goldman-sachs-in-latest-music-in-the-air/]] | |||
* Its '''CAGR forecast for recorded music ''streaming'' growth in that same period (2023-2030) also remains “unchanged”, says Goldman, at +11%.''' | |||
* Prediction for recorded '''music ''streaming'' revenue in 2023 has been pared down: Goldman now expects 2023’s global music streaming revenue (gross) to grow by 11.9% YoY (vs a 13.0% previous forecast).''' | |||
* Goldman is forecasting within its numbers that '''headline prices at music streaming services in developed markets (US, Europe etc.) will increase by an average of 3% per year over the next seven years.''' | * Goldman is forecasting within its numbers that '''headline prices at music streaming services in developed markets (US, Europe etc.) will increase by an average of 3% per year over the next seven years.''' | ||
* If 20% of paid streaming subscribers today could be categorized as ‘superfans’, says Goldman, and if these ‘superfans’ were willing to spend double what a non-superfan spends on digital music each year, it implies a $4.2 billion (currently untapped) annual revenue opportunity for the record biz. That $4.2 billion figure, however, represents a ‘Total Addressable Market’ (TAM). | * If 20% of paid streaming subscribers today could be categorized as ‘superfans’, says Goldman, and if these '''‘superfans’ were willing to spend double what a non-superfan spends on digital music each year, it implies a $4.2 billion (currently untapped) annual revenue opportunity for the record biz.''' That $4.2 billion figure, however, represents a ‘Total Addressable Market’ (TAM). | ||
* Goldman’s forecasts remain very similar to where they were before – though it’s shaved 60 million off its previous 1.26 billion subscriber forecast for 2030, partly reflecting the exclusion of Russia from estimates. | |||
== References == | == References == | ||