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Talk:Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
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## [[User:MagaNH6|@Magaly]] We both know that this explanation is complete bs when it comes to treasuries. There is zero risk of default. My goal for the wiki is doing our own proprietary research, focusing on the correlations we believe are strongest. If in doubt we will extensively study historical examples and correlations and using a system of logical cause-effect principles to get to a high conviction level of what is important. To me it is indeed very important to be ultra critical towards anything -no matter the source - which doesn't make sense. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 21:25, 4 January 2023 (UTC) | ## [[User:MagaNH6|@Magaly]] We both know that this explanation is complete bs when it comes to treasuries. There is zero risk of default. My goal for the wiki is doing our own proprietary research, focusing on the correlations we believe are strongest. If in doubt we will extensively study historical examples and correlations and using a system of logical cause-effect principles to get to a high conviction level of what is important. To me it is indeed very important to be ultra critical towards anything -no matter the source - which doesn't make sense. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 21:25, 4 January 2023 (UTC) | ||
[[User:PirateCaptain|@PirateCaptain]] IMO yield curve inversion is the expectation of future lower rates from FED due to the expectations of lower economy activity and hence lower inflation. I will stick to my opinion that yield curve inversion is a strong signal for a upcoming recession due to the historical data supporting the correlation, until you show me data that says otherwise -- Magaly | |||
[[User:MagaNH6|@Magaly]] I found your reply via my watchlist, but got no notification on it. In order for a notification be sent you need to sign your msg using the sign symbol. It is right to the "B" and "I" at the top and will include 4 "~" to the msg which will then translate to a signature with your username + timestamp. | |||
On the topic itself: I absolutely agree with your last statement "yield curve inversion is the expectation of future lower rates from FED due to the expectations of lower economy activity and hence lower inflation." I've glanced through the source and they also talk extensively about interest rate expectations. Therefore you should definitely add this to the article. | |||
This has no priority right now but longterm i could see us having an own article for a topic like yield curve inversion in which we study and discuss different factors why the yield curve is inverted. The goal is like always to understand cause-effect relationships better and differ signal from noise. We can then come up with a list of factors and determine if they are mainly causing the effect which we are seeing, play a minor part or are detrimental to it. | |||
In the end our goal is to develop a system of cause-effect relationships with a clear understanding of simple & most powerful relationships. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 09:47, 8 January 2023 (UTC) | |||
== Wrong Correlation == | == Wrong Correlation == | ||