Music Industry: Difference between revisions

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 == Forecasts ==
-=== Statista ===
+=== Goldman Sachs ===
+[[File:Music2.png|center|thumb|896x896px|https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/music-in-the-air/report.pdf]]
-* Revenue in the Music Streaming market is projected to reach US$25.71bn in 2023.<ref>https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/digital-media/digital-music/music-streaming/worldwide</ref>
-* Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2023-2027) of 5.13%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$31.40bn by 2027.
-=== Goldman Sachs ===
+Raised global music industry revenue forecasts  to reflect a more positive view on pricing and revenue from emerging platforms that more than offsets the near-term potential impact of the weaker macro environment.<ref>https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/music-in-the-air/report.pdf</ref>
+* Raise our 2022/2023 global music forecasts by 7%/5% respectively, and 2030 forecasts by 10%, mainly on the back of a stronger 2021 base where revenues came 11% ahead of our expectations.
-* Forecast music revenue to more than double to about $131 billion by 2030. Recorded from 30 billion in 2017 to 80 billion. <ref>https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/infographics/music-streaming/</ref>
+* Forecast +24%/+8% growth in 2022/23, which is 3ppt lower than previously owing to the impact of a weaker macro and Russia, while our forecast 2022- 30 CAGR is unchanged at +9%.
+* Expect consumer spend on music to remain resilient in a higher inflation/ weaker macro environment. Our analysis shows that music remains one of the most undermonetised forms of entertainment, with spending still 40% below its historical peak
-Grow Factors:
+==== Streaming ====
-* Millennials and Generation Z are spending more of their annual budgets on music than other age groups
+* Forecast 2021-2030E streaming revenue CAGR of +12% (from +11% prior), with volumes remaining the primary driver.
-* Streaming platforms will continue to expand their reach as smartphones become more popular.
+* In 2023, forecast+13% streaming revenue growth (from +15% previously) as we incorporate the impact of a weaker macro and lower revenues from Russia
-* New payment solutions, business models and recognition of intellectual property rights set the stage for growth
+* Forecast global paid streaming penetration to rise to 20% in 2030 from 11% in 2021.
-* Streaming could lose some of its appeal and consumers might resort to piracy if prices go up and labels pulls music from streaming plarforms.
+* ARPU stabilised in 2021 for the first time in 5 years; expect 1% decline going forward as improved pricing is offset by dilution from EM.
+* Expect emerging platform revenues will represent 40% of ad-funded streaming revenues by 2030.
+* Expect further fragmentation amongst the top DSPs. Spotify expected to decline its market share.
 == References ==