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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 March: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 March (view source)
Revision as of 19:33, 10 April 2023
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== Summary == | == Summary == | ||
February 2023 CPI is expected to continue on its downward trend, with | February 2023 CPI is expected to continue on its downward trend, recent developments are in line with the expectations. | ||
However, core CPI, is expected to increase Y/Y compare to February, and to be higher than the headline CPI number. Shpwing the stickines of the core inflation. | |||
We think the numbers will still be very high for the FED to fell comfortable to change its plan, especially since their focus is on the core numbers. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | ||
* Wages are still increasing but a more moderate pace, 4.2% down from 4.6% in January. The labor market remains still | * Wages are still increasing but a more moderate pace, 4.2% in march down from 4.6% in January. The labor market remains still tight. | ||
* Energy prices had a small decline in March. In contrary, gasoline prices increase a bit. | |||
* Food prices continue to decline, marking a 20% Y/Y decline. | |||
* Supply chain has normalized, falling even below the index’s historical average in March | |||
* Housing prices continue to decline m/m. | |||
* Used Car prices increase again 1.5% in March. CPI data could start reflecting the increases seeing since January. | |||
Despite the banking developments, the markets are still pricing another rate hike in May. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||