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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 February: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 February (view source)
Revision as of 18:57, 13 March 2023
, 13 March 2023→CPI expectations
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
February 2023 CPI is expected to continue on its downward trend, with headline CPI expected to have a bigger decline than core CPI. We think the numbers will still be very high for the FED to fell comfortable to change its plan. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/Consumer_Price_Index) | Some developments during the month: (more details: https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/Consumer_Price_Index) | ||
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<nowiki>*</nowiki> Housing prices continue to decline m/m, but this will only be reflected later in the year. | <nowiki>*</nowiki> Housing prices continue to decline m/m, but this will only be reflected later in the year. | ||
Due to the Banking situation unfolding recently, market is now pricing 75% of 25 bps and 25% of no hikes in | Due to the Banking situation unfolding recently, market is now pricing 75% of 25 bps and 25% of no hikes in next the meeting, a terminal rate of 4.75%, and rate cuts around September.<ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | ||
''Range:'' | ''Range:'' | ||
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* CPI: 5.8% - 6.3% | * CPI: 5.8% - 6.3% | ||
* Core CPI: 5.4% - 5.6% | * Core CPI: 5.4% - 5.6% | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
If < 5.8%: ≥ 4% rally | |'''Escenario''' | ||
|'''Probability''' | |||
Between 5.8% - 5.9%: 2-3% rally | |- | ||
|If < 5.8%: ≥ 4% rally | |||
In line with expectations (6.0% - 6.1%): flat reaction | |10% | ||
|- | |||
Between 6.2% - 6.3%: 1-2% drop | |Between 5.8% - 5.9%: 2-3% rally | ||
|25% | |||
if > 6.4%: ≥ 5% drop | |- | ||
|In line with expectations (6.0% - 6.1%): flat reaction | |||
|40% | |||
|- | |||
|Between 6.2% - 6.3%: 1-2% drop | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|if > 6.4%: ≥ 5% drop | |||
|10% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||