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Macro-State Discussion: Difference between revisions
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a | == January 2023 == | ||
'''Moritz:''' How are you seeing current developments and the outlook? Is there something i should urgently look at? Should i think about reducing investments a bit right now given the recovery or is the picture looking better already compared to 1-2 months ago? | |||
'''Magaly:''' It Depends in your view about current data: | |||
Markets right now are probably reacting to: | |||
- CPI coming down and expectation for the lower trend to continue this year | |||
- FED will most likely pause soon, and markets are pricing rate cuts this year contrary to what the FED has said. <nowiki>https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1613215357166043137</nowiki> | |||
- China reopening could boost global demand: <nowiki>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/china-reopening-could-boost-2023-global-economy</nowiki> | |||
- Markets are pricing a small chance of a possible recession or at least a serious one. <nowiki>https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession-or-soft-landing#details</nowiki> | |||
IMO markets are expecting that just a very soft economy weakness will cause the FED to cut rates in 2023, and the growth cycle will start again. I am not sure it is realistic. Either we have a soft landing and the FED can follow their plan, or we have a recession that will force the FED to cut rates. | |||