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Volkswagen:Position Changes: Difference between revisions
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== 27 February 2023 == | == 27 February 2023 == | ||
I sold 25% of our Volkswagen to take a more defensive positon at | I sold 25% of our Volkswagen to take a more defensive positon at | ||
VW remains to be sizable position in the portfolio. | |||
Reasons: | |||
* Automotive Data is showing some first signs of deterioration as expected. See: [[Automotive Industry:United States]]. Especially the Cox Automotive Insight Presentation mentioned in our article is insightful. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Jan-12-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf</ref> | |||
* It is likely that the situation will further deteriorate with lower demand due to high interest rates and a possible recession while supply bottlenecks ease, which will lead to more competition and eventual price pressures. | |||
* Our visibility into China is still limited. There are consistent geopolitical risks <ref>https://discord.com/channels/978370501237932092/1012303584446136380/1078226279544930344</ref> and a hickup in the automotive market due to the end of state subsidies. <ref>https://discord.com/channels/978370501237932092/1012303584446136380/1076248019105742878</ref> The reopening after Covid should be positive though. | |||
* In the longterm the risk from autonomous vehicles is very unpredictable. I believe that there will be a self driving future which could reduce car demand drastically. | |||
* There are many open unanswered [[questions]] like the profit margins of EVs see [[Automotive Industry:Questions]] or the situation at Volkswagen Financial Services see [[Volkswagen:Questions]] that need to be answered. | |||
Note: I already sold and repurchased 25% of the Volkswagen position on | |||
== References == | |||