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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
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=== 4. ISM new orders === | === 4. ISM new orders === | ||
New orders indicators provide a measure of the value of orders received by the unit during the reference period. It is defined as the value of all legally binding contracts between a producer and a consumer for future deliveries by the producer of goods or services. | |||
New orders are a leading indicator of production in that they measure future demand and production requirements. Enterprises may meet orders through: their own production processes; by sub-contracting some or all of the production process or through the resale of goods purchased.<ref>https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=4363#:~:text=New%20orders%20are%20a%20leading,future%20demand%20and%20production%20requirements.</ref> | |||
What is the current data telling us? | |||
# The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 47.20 points in November from 49.20 points in October of 2022. It marks a third straight month of falling new orders.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | |||
# The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to a five-month low of 56 points in November from 56.50 points in October of 2022<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | |||
# New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $270.6 billion. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | |||
In conclusion, the current data points to weaker and contracting future output or production, this especially in the manufacturing sector, however services new orders has slowed significantly in the last 2 months. New orders is considered more of a short term leading indicator, so we can expect the weakness to materialize in production/labor in Q1/Q2 2023. | |||
5. Jobless Claims | |||
== References == | == References == | ||