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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
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# Majority of the yield curve is inverted at this moment, this condition has always preceded a recession <ref>http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-states/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010Y%20Government,last%20modification%20in%20December%202022).</ref> | # Majority of the yield curve is inverted at this moment, this condition has always preceded a recession <ref>http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-states/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010Y%20Government,last%20modification%20in%20December%202022).</ref> | ||
In conclusion, | In conclusion, due to the fact that the Yield curve inverts due to expectations of higher odds of recession, that the Yield curve has inverted before each recession and that usually the average lead time between the inversion and the recession is equal or greater than one year, there is a high likehood that relying on this indicators the recession risks in the US economy are amplify significant for the second half of 2023 onwards. | ||