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Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 February 01: Difference between revisions
Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 February 01 (view source)
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* Financial conditions have loosened significantly in recent months and, by some measures, are around levels that prevailed last March when the Fed initiated this hiking cycle. | * Financial conditions have loosened significantly in recent months and, by some measures, are around levels that prevailed last March when the Fed initiated this hiking cycle. | ||
* A faster journey to the peak rate that has already been signaled, and reiterated by Fed officials several times, reduces the complexities of linking the path to a variable destination. | * A faster journey to the peak rate that has already been signaled, and reiterated by Fed officials several times, reduces the complexities of linking the path to a variable destination. | ||
<u>'''Comment Moritz:'''</u> Good Bloomberg Opinion piece by El-Erian. I tend to agree with his opinion esp. on sending a determined signal and restoring credibility. | |||
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* Markets hope the FED will give the message they are close the end, if they said more work to do still, markets will not react well. | * Markets hope the FED will give the message they are close the end, if they said more work to do still, markets will not react well. | ||
* Worst yield curve inversion in 40 years, FED should not target to create an even worst inversion. | |||
* Money supply growth at levels not seen since great | * Money supply growth at low levels not seen since great depressions that should be enough | ||
* In the 1970s inflation money supply was increased that caused inflation (Min 2:25) | |||
* | * Argues that "real" inflation when calculating with ''current'' housing data (not with housing data of the last months) is negative. (2:40) | ||
<u>'''Comment Moritz:'''</u> I've added two arguments he brought up. Obvs. they are interesting topics to study. (Low Prio) Overall he appears to be too market focused for my liking. Imo it does not matter if current data is deflationary as long as there is still a problem in service inflation that consists. | |||
== Meeting Results == | == Meeting Results == | ||
== Assessment == | == Assessment == | ||