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Talk:Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
→Overall Feedback
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To me it does not matter if GDP is 0% or -1% for 1 or 2 years. It starts to matter if a recession could be way steeper than currently believed. | To me it does not matter if GDP is 0% or -1% for 1 or 2 years. It starts to matter if a recession could be way steeper than currently believed. | ||
Eventually we should also habe sub-articles for most important indicators and use the Main Page as a "heatmap/tracking" page that gives Investors an very fast overview over the current state (regularly updated with new incoming data) while it also allows him to dive deeper via the linked sub-articles. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 19:55, 24 January 2023 (UTC) | Eventually we should also habe sub-articles for most important indicators and use the Main Page as a "heatmap/tracking" page that gives Investors an very fast overview over the current state (regularly updated with new incoming data) while it also allows him to dive deeper via the linked sub-articles. --[[User:PirateCaptain|PirateCaptain]] ([[User talk:PirateCaptain|talk]]) 19:55, 24 January 2023 (UTC) | ||
[[User:PirateCaptain]] Since then there have been other hard data deteriorating like industrial production and retail sales. Liquidity is also pretty dire at the moment too, Money growth is negative for the first time ever, and QT is still going. Which I will probably be including in the article, I mentioned this in Linear. | |||
But Hard data is more difficult to use as leading indicator, because usually it is lagging or coincident, or the lead is pretty short. You would need to use some soft data to support the idea initially. | |||
Those indicators like yield curve and the LEI have been pretty good at predicting coming weakness in the economy, and were the first ones in 2022 to give the signal, thats why they should not be ignored as long as it makes sense. If we would have pay attention to these indicators in 2022, along with housing, we could have already be able to predict the weakness we are seeing now. | |||
As for the severe of a possible recession, that's really difficult to predict, I have not even seen any economist making forecast, no specific ones, more than the forecast of a possible recession, or that it will be mild or not. It is always unknown how it will unfold, a recession could bring to light some weak spot that was not expected before, and if the central bank don't intervene on time it could make it more severe too. This will only become more clear as the data continue to come out, and the FED reaction to it. You always have the IMF or world bank forecast, but I dont think their models are that accurate, they only adjust when it is evident in the data, same as FED models. | |||
Also, dont think GDP should be the only focus, GDP has been very volatile this lasts quarters due to inventory level and trade balances, as an example, data coming this thursday will show positive GDP, giving the impression the economy is stil very strong, but as Eric pointed out this will be due to inventory changes and trade, not the core economy being strong. https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1617902574644137991 | |||
And the NBER dont clasify the recessions based on GDP, they instead use a basket of coincident indicators. Also important to point out that NBER dont call a recession until almost the very end, so it we could that we will be entering the recession at some point, but we wont know the official dates until much later this year or next year. | |||
As I mentioned in the article, due to some numbers being so bad, I could think this could be more than a mild recession, and 0% growth. But I dont have tools or models to have high confidence in that opinion. --[[User:MagaNH6|MagaNH6]] ([[User talk:MagaNH6|talk]]) 22:04, 24 January 2023 (UTC) | |||