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Volkswagen:Quarterly Results/2024 Q3: Difference between revisions
Volkswagen:Quarterly Results/2024 Q3 (view source)
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Return to: [[Earnings Season]] | Return to: [[Earnings Season]] | ||
See also: [[Earnings Season:2024 Q2]] | [[Earnings Season:2024 Q1]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q4]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q3]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q2]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q1]] | [[Earnings Season:2022 Q4]] | See also: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit?gid=1414737805#gid=1414737805 Valuation Model] | [[Earnings Season:2024 Q2]] | [[Earnings Season:2024 Q1]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q4]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q3]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q2]] | [[Earnings Season:2023 Q1]] | [[Earnings Season:2022 Q4]] | ||
== Management and analysts expectations == | == Management and analysts expectations == | ||
=== | * Management [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/volkswagen-news/100/141 expects] 2024 revenue to decline 0.7% y/y to 320 billion euros (previous forecast: growth of 5% y/y, the lower-point being [[Volkswagen:Quarterly Results/2024 Q2|more likely]]). | ||
* It expects operating return on sales to come in at around 5.6% (previous forecast: lower range of 6.5% to 7.0%). | |||
=== Recent analysts estimates at Marketscreener === | |||
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== Major subsidiary expectations == | |||
=== Porsche === | |||
=== Management guidance === | |||
* Porsche's management [https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2024/company/porsche-second-quarter-half-year-profit-sales-revenue-36915.html expects] sales revenue in the range of €39 to €40 billion (lowered from a range of €40 to 42 billion). | |||
* It expects operating return on sales in the range of 14% and 15% (lowered from a range of between 15% and 17%). | |||
=== Analysts estimates at Marketscreener === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|- | |||
!Key Items<ref>https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PORSCHE-AG-144310199/finances/</ref> | |||
!Q3 2024 | |||
!Y/Y | |||
!Q4 2024 | |||
!Y/Y | |||
!2024 | |||
!Y/Y | |||
|- | |||
|Revenue | |||
|EUR 9.24 billion | |||
| -4.8% | |||
|EUR 10.526 | |||
| 1.23% | |||
|EUR 39.2 billion | |||
| -3.4% | |||
|- | |||
|Operating return on sales | |||
|11.3% | |||
| | |||
|14.4% | |||
| | |||
|14.4% | |||
| | |||
|} | |||
N/B: Porsche's revenue reported at the group level is less than that reported at the subsidiary level by around EUR 800-900 million (average of 851 million in the last four quarters). Similarly, the EBIT reported at the Group level has been less than that reported by Porsche in the past four quarters by an average of 76 million euros. '''That means analysts are projecting Porsche's revenue at the Group level to be around EUR 8.38 billion (growth of -5.7% y/y) in Q3 2024 while operating return on sales (EBIT: EUR 966 million) will be around 11.5%'''. | |||
== Analysts opinions == | |||
=== Automotive prices could be declining === | |||
* Outperform, €103-> €102: Analyst Tom Narayan of RBC said the mood for the automotive industry is bad. He pointed out that four automakers have issued profit warnings recently. He says that one has to ask whether prices are declining following the Corona pandemic<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-outperform-974559</ref>. | |||
=== Volkswagen is likely to report a weak quarter === | |||
* Buy (preference shares), €150->€115: Deutsche Bank expects most of Volkswagen's key figures to be negative<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-buy-974326</ref>. | |||
* Buy (preference shares), €140: Analyst Philippe Houchois of Jefferies said several profit warnings from automakers have left little room for major surprises in the third quarter<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-buy-974321</ref>. | |||
=== Further deterioration of the industry is expected === | |||
* Sell (preference shares), €84: Analyst Patrick Hummel of UBS expects the industry to deteriorate further. He sees more upcoming profit warnings<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-sell-973769</ref>. | |||
=== It's interesting that Volkswagen is blaming the mass market === | |||
* Overweight, €110: Analyst Henning Cosman of Barclays is curious why Volkswagen blamed the mass market and the financial service division while the likes of BMW and Mercedes-Benz are blaming China and luxury segment<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-overweight-973498</ref>. | |||
=== Further restructuring costs are expected === | |||
* Buy, €120-> €115: Analyst Romain Gourvil of Berenberg expects more burdens from restructuring charges<ref>https://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-buy-973477</ref>. | |||
== References == | == References == | ||