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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for June 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June|here]]   
Expectations for July 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July|here]]   


==Historical CPI Releases==
==Historical CPI Releases==
Line 10: Line 10:
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''


''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May]]''
''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June]]''


===Recent Inflation History ===
===Recent Inflation History ===
Line 515: Line 515:
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
! M/M Forecast
! Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-07-01
|35.07
|0.23
|3.63
|0.3%
|3.7%
|-
|-
|2024-06-01
|2024-06-01
|35.00
|34.99
|0.29
|0.32
|3.86
|3.83
|0.3%
|0.3%
|3.9%
| 3.9%
|-
|-
|2024-05-01
|2024-05-01
|34.91
|34.88
|0.40
|0.37
|4.08
| 4.00
|0.3%
|0.3%
|3.9%
|3.9%
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
|34.77
| 34.75
|0.23
|0.17
|3.98
|3.92
|0.3%
| 4%
|-
|2024-03-01
|34.69
|0.38
|4.14
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4%
|4.1%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
Line 544: Line 558:
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
!Index
|-
|31-Jul-2024
| -0.09
|-
|-
|30-Jun-2024
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.03
| -0.33
|-
|-
|31-May-2024
|31-May-2024
| -0.50
| -0.55
|-
|-
|30-Apr-2024
|30-Apr-2024
| -0.72
| -0.96
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Line 577: Line 594:
|-
|-
!Date
!Date
! Index
!Index
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
Line 586: Line 603:
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-05-01
|323.48
|0.86
|5.94
|333.21
|0.99
|6.81
|350.60
|0.98
|7.65
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
|320.42
|320.72
|1.17
|1.25
|6.29
|6.39
|329.78
|329.95
|1.36
|7.20
|346.89
|1.38
|1.38
|8.01
|7.25
|347.19
|1.42
|8.11
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
|316.71
|316.75
|1.30
|1.31
|6.52
|6.53
|325.35
|325.47
|1.56
|1.58
|7.47
|7.50
| 342.16
|342.33
|1.63
|1.66
|8.29
|8.35
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
|312.63
|312.65
|0.63
|0.63
|6.54
|6.54
|320.36
|320.40
|0.92
|0.93
|7.43
|7.44
|336.68
|336.74
|1.00
|1.01
|8.25
|8.27
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|310.68
|310.69
| -0.05
| -0.05
|6.11
|6.11
|317.44
|317.46
| -0.09
| -0.08
|6.72
|6.72
|333.35
|333.37
| -0.01
|0.01
|7.56
|7.56
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|310.84
|310.85
| -0.37
| -0.37
|5.61
|5.61
|317.74
|317.72
| -0.27
| -0.27
|6.26
|6.25
|333.37
|333.35
| -0.16
| -0.16
|7.14
|7.13
|}
|}
==== Rents ====
==== Rents ====
The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer.<ref name=":0">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.<ref name=":04">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
 
*Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
* Rents are up 0.4% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
*Through July, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* As of June, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
*ationwide rent growth was positive in July 2024, so too was it positive in the majority of large cities across the country; 72 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.
* As nationwide rent growth was positive in June, so too was local rent growth in the majority of large cities across the county. 80 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.
 
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]


CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.6 points in June 2024, unchanged from its revised figure for May, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products balanced out a decrease in the price index for cereals, while the meat index was almost unchanged. Despite this firming after three consecutive monthly upticks, the FFPI remained 2.1 percent lower than its corresponding value one year ago and 24.8 percent below its peak of 160.3 points reached in March 2022.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":02">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
! Date<ref name=":03">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
!Food Price Index
! colspan="3" |Food Price Index
!Meat
!Meat
!Dairy
!Dairy
!Cereals
!Cereals
! Oils
!Oils
!Sugar
!Sugar
|-
!
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
|-
|2024-07
|120.8
| -0.18%
| -3.06%
|119.5
|127.7
|110.8
|135.0
|120.2
|-
|-
|2024-06
|2024-06
|120.6
|121.0
|116.9
|0.27%
|127.8
| -1.75%
|118.0
|127.9
|115.2
|115.2
|131.8
|131.8
Line 674: Line 720:
|2024-05
|2024-05
|120.6
|120.6
|117.0
|1.13%
| -3.26%
|117.1
|126.3
|126.3
|118.7
|118.7
Line 682: Line 730:
|2024-04
|2024-04
|119.3
|119.3
| 116.7
|0.28%
| -7.29%
|116.7
|123.8
|123.8
|111.6
|111.6
Line 690: Line 740:
|2024-03
|2024-03
|119.0
|119.0
|1.29%
| -7.20%
|115.0
|115.0
|124.0
|124.0
Line 695: Line 747:
|130.6
|130.6
|133.4
|133.4
|-
|2024-02
|117.4
|112.5
|120.7
|113.8
|120.9
|140.8
|-
|2024-01
|117.7
|109.0
|118.7
|119.9
|122.5
|136.4
|-
|2023-12
|119.2
|111.6
|118.7
|122.8
|122.3
|134.2
|}
|}
===6. Energy===
===6. Energy===
Line 725: Line 753:
! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
Line 734: Line 762:
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
! Y/Y
!Dollars per Million BTU NSA
!Dollars per Million BTU NSA
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-07-01
|81.80
|2.55
|7.53
|3.48
|0.85
| -3.15
|2.08
| -17.98
| -18.64
|-
|-
|2024-06-01
|2024-06-01
|82.69
|79.77
|3.20
| -0.32
|17.71
|13.55
|3.46
|3.46
| -4.12
| -4.12
| -3.26
| -3.26
|2.54
|2.53
|19.81
|19.34
|16.69
|16.23
|-
|-
|2024-05-01
|2024-05-01
|80.12
| 80.02
| -6.12
| -6.24
|11.94
|11.80
|3.60
|3.60
| -0.23
| -0.23
|1.36
|1.36
|2.12
|2.12
| 32.60
|32.60
| -1.23
| -1.23
|-
|-
| 2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
|85.35
|85.35
|5.01
|5.01
Line 780: Line 819:
|0.10
|0.10
|1.49
|1.49
| -13.27
| -13.27
| -35.25
| -35.25
|}
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
! Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|-
| 2024-02-01
| July-24
|77.25
|201.6
|4.18
|18,441
|0.54
|2.80%
|3.21
| -4.80%
| 4.43
|48,401
| -5.23
|
|1.72
| -0.2%
| -45.80
| -27.68
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|Jun-24
|74.15
|196.1
|3.13
|17,934
| -5.08
| -0.6%
|3.08
| -8.9%
| -1.87
|48,644<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
| -7.90
|0.6%
|3.18
| -0.6%
|25.89
| -2.96
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|May-24
|71.90
|197.3
| -7.45
|18,048
| -5.94
| -0.6%
|3.13
| -12.1%
| -5.55
|48,378
| -2.37
|
|2.52
|
| -6.82
| -54.37
|}
|}
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
==== Used====
*Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in June compared to May. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month for the second time in a row. The non-adjusted price in June decreased by 2.2% compared to May, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.0% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2024-muvvi/</ref>
*Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.5%, including a decline of only 0.2% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, showing that depreciation trends are currently running higher than long-term averages for the year.
*Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 97.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month. Against May, valuation models in June moved down a point on MMR retention. '
*The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.4%, a rise over the previous month and higher than is normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.4% in June over the past two years.
*The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was down 1% over the last four weeks.
====New====
*The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle increased to $48,644 in June (0.5% m/m), marking the highest price since December
=== 8. Import Prices ===
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
Line 837: Line 875:
!Import Prices Y/Y
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
!
!
Line 843: Line 881:
!
!
!
!
|-
|2024-06-01
|141.60
|0.00
|0.00
|3.17
|4.68
|1.58
|-
|-
|2024-05-01
|2024-05-01
|141.20
|141.60
| -0.60
| -0.30
| -0.42
| -0.21
|4.36
|5.55
|2.60
|3.18
|1.07
| 1.36
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
|141.80
|141.90
|1.30
|1.40
|0.93
|1.00
|7.07
|7.37
|2.44
|2.59
|1.07
|1.14
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
| 2024-03-01
|140.50
|140.50
|0.80
|0.80
|0.57
|0.57
|6.21
| 6.21
| -0.71
| -0.71
|0.43
|0.43
Line 882: Line 928:
| -1.98
| -1.98
|0.00
|0.00
| -1.34
| -1.34
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
Line 892: Line 938:
| -2.40
| -2.40
|}
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
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