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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June (view source)
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Lack of progress with wages, which surprised to the upside again in May 2024. | |||
*Oil and Gasoline declined during May 2024 after a few month of increases, being down 6.1% m/m and -0.23% m/m, respectively. | |||
*Food Index had the third consecutive month of increases with a 0.9% m/m increase, but still down 3.4% Y/Y. | |||
*Supply chain index remains stable | |||
*Housing prices increased 1.2% m/m during May, reaching 6.5% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.5% m/m, down 0.8% y/y. | |||
*Used car prices continue to decline in May being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices remain unchanged. | |||
*Import prices continued to increase being up 1.3% in May 2024, and up now 1% y/y, after being negative for months. | |||
The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in september. | |||
''Range:'' | ''Range:'' | ||
*CPI: 3. | *CPI: 3.0% - 3.2% | ||
*Core CPI: 3.3% - 3. | *Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.5% | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|'''Escenario''' | |'''Escenario''' | ||
| Line 16: | Line 25: | ||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |'''Probability by Magaly''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI below 3. | |CPI below 3.0% | ||
|3%+ rally | |3%+ rally | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI at 3. | |CPI at 3.0% | ||
|2% Rally | |2% Rally | ||
|30% | |30% | ||
| Line 28: | Line 37: | ||
|50% | |50% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI 3. | |CPI at 3.2% | ||
|1-2% drop | |1-2% drop | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI above 3. | |CPI above 3.2% | ||
|3% drop | |3% drop | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
| Line 43: | Line 52: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |Core CPI (MoM) | ||
|0. | |0.2% | ||
|0. | |0.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |Core CPI (YoY) | ||
|3. | |3.4% | ||
|3. | |3.4% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI (MoM) | |CPI (MoM) | ||
|0.1% | |0.1% | ||
|0. | |0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI (YoY) | |CPI (YoY) | ||
|3. | |3.1% | ||
|3. | |3.3% | ||
|} | |} | ||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | ===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | ||
| Line 70: | Line 79: | ||
!Core CPI | !Core CPI | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |June 2024 | ||
|3. | |3.12 | ||
|3. | |3.52 | ||
|0. | |0.07 | ||
|0. | |0.28 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |July 2024 | ||
|3. | |3.17 | ||
|3. | |3.6 | ||
|0. | |0.25 | ||
|0. | |0.29 | ||
|} | |} | ||
==References== | ==References== | ||
<references /> | <references /> | ||