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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May (view source)
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''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March]] | |||
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06122024.htm | |||
Publishing date: June 12, 2024. | |||
==CPI expectations== | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Lack on progress with wages, which surprise to the upside again in May 2024. | |||
*Oil and Gasoline had a declined during may 2024 after a fre month of increases, being down 6.1% m/m and -0.23% m/m, respectively. | |||
*Food Index had the third consecutive month of increases with a 0.9% m/m increase, but still down 3.4% Y/Y. | |||
*Supply chain index remains stable | |||
*Housing prices recorded an increase of 1.2% m/m during april, reaching 6.5% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.5% m/m, down 0.8% y/y. | |||
*Used car prices continue to decline in april being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices remain unchanged. | |||
*Import prices continued to increased being up significant 1.3% in may 2024, and up now 1% y/y, after being negative for months. | |||
The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in september. | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-06-11 135509.png|alt=|center|thumb|530x530px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.2% - 3.6% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.7% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.2% | |||
|3%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.2-3.3% | |||
|2% Rally | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI 3.5%-3.6% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.6% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.5% | |||
|3.6% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.1% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.4% | |||
|3.4% | |||
|} | |||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|May 2024 | |||
|3.36% | |||
|3.55% | |||
|0.08% | |||
|0.30% | |||
|- | |||
|June 2024 | |||
|3.24% | |||
|3.66% | |||
|0.12% | |||
|0.30% | |||
|} | |||
==References== | |||