Housing Market: Germany: Difference between revisions

''The number of building permits allows an early assessment of future construction activity.''  

[[File:Genehmigte-wohnungen-monat.png|center|thumb|775x775px|https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2024/02/PD24_074_3111.html#:~:text=11%20000%20Bauantr%C3%A4ge.-,Starke%20R%C3%BCckg%C3%A4nge%20bei%20Ein%2D%20und%20Zweifamilienh%C3%A4usern,300%20Wohnungen)%20besonders%20stark%20zur%C3%BCck.]]

* The number of approved apartments fell by 94,100 compared to the previous year to 260,100 apartments, the lowest level since 2012<ref>https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2024/02/PD24_074_3111.html#:~:text=11%20000%20Bauantr%C3%A4ge.-,Starke%20R%C3%BCckg%C3%A4nge%20bei%20Ein%2D%20und%20Zweifamilienh%C3%A4usern,300%20Wohnungen)%20besonders%20stark%20zur%C3%BCck.</ref>

* '''In 2023, 214,100 apartments were approved in newly built residential buildings. That was 29.7% or 90,200 new apartments fewer than in the previous year.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-22 111125.png|center|thumb|610x610px|<ref>https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/355212-0#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20quarter%20of,of%20the%20last%20five%20years.</ref>]]

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-22 111050.png|center|thumb|617x617px]]

In the first quarter of 2024, residential properties in Germany were traded for around €755m (transactions of at least 50 units). This was around 60% less than the quarterly average of the previous year (see Graph below) and even 86% less than the quarterly average of the last five years. <ref>https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/355212-0#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20quarter%20of,of%20the%20last%20five%20years.</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-29 082649.png|center|thumb|555x555px|https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/sites/default/files/document/2024-03/bnppre-institutional-report-germany-2024.pdf]]

[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-29 090002.png|center|thumb|781x781px|https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/sites/default/files/document/2024-03/bnppre-institutional-report-germany-2024.pdf]]

Market-active vacancy in Germany has fallen significantly over the past 10 years in line with ongoing high population growth. The period between 2021 and 2022 saw the sharpest decline of 0.3 percentage points.  

his statistic shows the proportion of the population in Germany in households with arrears on mortgage or rent payments in the period from 2008 to 2022. It shows the proportion of the population as a whole and that of the population at risk of poverty². In 2022, the proportion of the population in Germany in households in arrears on mortgage or rent payments was around 2.1 percent.<ref>https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/780395/umfrage/anteil-der-bevoelkerung-in-deutschland-mit-zahlungsrueckstaenden-bei-hypotheken-oder-mietzahlungen/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202022%20lag%20der,insgesamt%20etwa%202%2C1%20Prozent.</ref>

* However, German borrowers who have refinanced recently have responded to higher mortgage rates by re-fixing for shorter periods and reducing their amortisation rates, mirroring efforts in new mortgage lending to maintain or improve mortgage serviceability. Assuming that these adjustments by borrowers persist in 2024, '''and taking into account typical loan amortisation so far, monthly due amounts after refinancing next year should remain broadly unchanged for an average German mortgage originated in 2012-2013.'''<ref>https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/near-term-risks-from-german-residential-mortgage-resets-are-limited-13-12-2023</ref>

* Data from Europace indicates that the share of mortgages with fixed terms of five years or less is very low, and decreased from 2018, so only a small proportion of refinancing borrowers in 2024-2025 should be affected.

==== EPX Index ====

''The EPX hedonic is based on transaction data from private real estate financing from the independent Europace platform. Around 20 percent of all real estate financing for private customers in Germany is processed via Europace. The EPX was developed in 2005 together with the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning BBR and has been collected monthly since then.'' <ref>https://report.europace.de/epx-hedonic/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-26 131723.png|center|thumb|510x510px|https://www.schwaebisch-hall.de/baufinanzierung/kosten/immobilienpreise.html]]

[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-26 131650.png|center|thumb|596x596px|https://www.schwaebisch-hall.de/baufinanzierung/kosten/immobilienpreise.html]]