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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March: Difference between revisions

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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March (view source)

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== CPI expectations ==
== CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
*Wages had a nice surprice to the downside in february, but still remains sticky at ~4% y/y growth.
*Wages remains sticky at ~4% y/y.
*Oil and Gasoline both had a close to 5% increase during february
*Oil and Gasoline continued to increase in March, with a an over 5% increase for both. Oil is currently 10% Y/Y.
*Food prices continue to decline with a -0.7% m/m
*Food Index had the first increase after 7 month is decline, is still negative 7% Y/Y. 
*Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable.
*Supply chain index decline a bit during March, but remains stable.
*Housing prices had another 0.3% m/m decline in December, but remains 5.5% y/y. Rents went up 0.2% in February.
*While hpusing prices declined 0.1% during January 2024. Rents recorded the second month of increases being up 0.6% m/m.  
*Used car prices remained flat during January with a -0.1% m/m, and a -13% y/y.  New car prices also declined decline 0.1% m/m, they are donw 2.2% y/y.
*Used car prices continue to decline in March -0.4% m/m (-14.7 y/y), as well as new car prices -0.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y)
The markets are now pricing cuts starting in June, and 3-4 cuts during 2024,[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-11 113940.png|center|thumb|478x478px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html|link=https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/File:Screenshot_2024-03-11_113940.png]]''Range:''
The markets is still pricing cuts starting in June, and 3 average cuts during 2024,
*CPI: 3.0% - 3.2%
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-09 105624.png|alt=|center|thumb|481x481px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]]
*Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.8%
''Range:''
*CPI: 3.2% - 3.5%
*Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9%
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Escenario'''
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|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|-
|CPI below 3%
|CPI below 3.2%
|2%+ rally
|2%+ rally
|5%
|5%
|-
|-
|CPI at  3%
|CPI at  3.2-3.3%
|1% Rally
|1% Rally
|10%
|10%
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|50%
|50%
|-
|-
|CPI 3.2%
|CPI 3.5%
|1-2% drop
|1-2% drop
|30%
|30%
|-
|-
|CPI above 3.2%
|CPI above 3.5%
|3% drop
|3% drop
|5%
|5%
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