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Housing Market: Germany: Difference between revisions
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[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-27 121602.png|center|thumb|621x621px|https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/780395/umfrage/anteil-der-bevoelkerung-in-deutschland-mit-zahlungsrueckstaenden-bei-hypotheken-oder-mietzahlungen/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202022%20lag%20der,insgesamt%20etwa%202%2C1%20Prozent.]] | [[File:Screenshot 2024-03-27 121602.png|center|thumb|621x621px|https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/780395/umfrage/anteil-der-bevoelkerung-in-deutschland-mit-zahlungsrueckstaenden-bei-hypotheken-oder-mietzahlungen/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202022%20lag%20der,insgesamt%20etwa%202%2C1%20Prozent.]] | ||
his statistic shows the proportion of the population in Germany in households with arrears on mortgage or rent payments in the period from 2008 to 2022. It shows the proportion of the population as a whole and that of the population at risk of poverty². In 2022, the proportion of the population in Germany in households in arrears on mortgage or rent payments was around 2.1 percent.<ref>https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/780395/umfrage/anteil-der-bevoelkerung-in-deutschland-mit-zahlungsrueckstaenden-bei-hypotheken-oder-mietzahlungen/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202022%20lag%20der,insgesamt%20etwa%202%2C1%20Prozent.</ref> | his statistic shows the proportion of the population in Germany in households with arrears on mortgage or rent payments in the period from 2008 to 2022. It shows the proportion of the population as a whole and that of the population at risk of poverty². In 2022, the proportion of the population in Germany in households in arrears on mortgage or rent payments was around 2.1 percent.<ref>https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/780395/umfrage/anteil-der-bevoelkerung-in-deutschland-mit-zahlungsrueckstaenden-bei-hypotheken-oder-mietzahlungen/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202022%20lag%20der,insgesamt%20etwa%202%2C1%20Prozent.</ref> | ||
'''Fitch 2023''' | |||
* However, German borrowers who have refinanced recently have responded to higher mortgage rates by re-fixing for shorter periods and reducing their amortisation rates, mirroring efforts in new mortgage lending to maintain or improve mortgage serviceability. Assuming that these adjustments by borrowers persist in 2024, '''and taking into account typical loan amortisation so far, monthly due amounts after refinancing next year should remain broadly unchanged for an average German mortgage originated in 2012-2013.'''<ref>https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/near-term-risks-from-german-residential-mortgage-resets-are-limited-13-12-2023</ref> | |||
* Data from Europace indicates that the share of mortgages with fixed terms of five years or less is very low, and decreased from 2018, so only a small proportion of refinancing borrowers in 2024-2025 should be affected. | |||
* German households’ nominal disposable incomes have increased by about 50% since 2012, and we expect positive real wage growth in 2024 and low unemployment to support mortgage loan serviceability. We therefore '''expect broadly stable mortgage performance, and forecast delinquency rates to rise to 0.5% in 2024 from 0.4% in 2023, before reverting to slightly lower levels in 2025. We expect 10-year fixed mortgage rates to decline slightly from 4% this year to 3.75% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025.''' | |||
=== <big>Prices</big> === | === <big>Prices</big> === | ||