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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 December: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 December (view source)
Revision as of 21:48, 12 January 2023
, 12 January 2023→Summary
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== Summary == | == Summary == | ||
CPI numbers came | CPI numbers came in line with expectations, markets remained mostly flat after the release. The market is now pricing a 93% of 25bps in the next FED meeting. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | ||
CPI declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf</ref> | |||
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.3%, also meeting expectations. Core was up 5.7% from a year ago. | Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.3%, also meeting expectations. Core was up 5.7% from a year ago. | ||
=== Biggest contributors: === | === Biggest contributors: === | ||
[[File:CPI DEC.PNG|thumb|https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf]]The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes. | [[File:CPI DEC.PNG|thumb|https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf]]The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes. Core CPI was mostly driven by shelter inflation. | ||
* Energy: -4.5% MoM, 7.5% YoY | * Energy: -4.5% MoM, 7.5% YoY | ||
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* Services less shelter: 7.4% YoY | * Services less shelter: 7.4% YoY | ||
However, the three-month annualized rates already show signs that the rate of inflation in recent months is coming back to normal for most items, except for the shelter component, which is known to have a significant lag in the CPI data.<ref>https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1613535547125018625</ref> | However, the three-month annualized rates already show signs that the rate of inflation in recent months is coming back to normal for most items, except for the shelter component, which is known to have a significant lag in the CPI data.<ref>https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1613535547125018625</ref> | ||
Core goods: -4.8% | * Core goods: -4.8% | ||
Shelter: 9.2% | * Shelter: 9.2% | ||
Services less shelter: 1.2% | * Services less shelter: 1.2% | ||
== Past CPI expectations == | == Past CPI expectations == | ||