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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for November 2023 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November|here]]   
Expectations for January 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|here]]   


==Historical CPI Releases==
==Historical CPI Releases==
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''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''


''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October]]''
''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December]]''
*Consumer price index(CPI) was flat in October; hence below 0.1% estimate but rose 3.2% year-over-year, lower than 3.7% in September and 3.3% estimate.
 
*Core CPI rose 0.2% in October, below 0.3% estimate.
* CPI rose 0.3% in December, up from 0.1% in November and above 0.2% estimate.
*Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.0%, below 4.1% estimate.
* Yearly, CPI rose 3.4% on the month, up from 3.1% in November and higher than 3.2% estimate.
*Shelter contributed to most of the growth in CPI, having risen 0.3% on the month (September: +0.6%) while energy prices fell 2.5% (September: +1.5%)
* Core CPI rose 0.3% in December, unchanged from November’s figure and in-line with the estimate.
*Supercore inflation eased to 3.7% (September: 3.87%) on a yearly basis and is up 0.2% on the month (September: +0.6%).
* Yearly, core CPI rose 3.9% lower than 4.0% in November and higher than 3.8% estimate.
* Shelter rose 0.5% on the month (November:+0.4%) and was responsible for more than half of the monthly headline increase.
* Energy prices were up 0.4% in December after being down for two consecutive months.
* Supercore inflation was up by 3.9% on a yearly basis, same as in November but rose 0.4% on the month down from 0.44%.
 
===Recent Inflation History ===
===Recent Inflation History ===
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|December 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm Link]
|-
|-
|November 2023
|November 2023
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Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]


Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. <ref name=":0">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. <ref name=":03">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>
 
*In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55.
* In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.27.
*In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.  
* In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.42.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date
!Release Date
Line 435: Line 451:
!M/M Forecast
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-01-01
|34.55
|0.55
|4.48
|0.3%
|4.1%
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|34.27
|34.36
|0.44
|0.38
|4.10
|4.31
|0.3%
|0.3%
|3.9%
|3.9%
|-
|-
|2023-11-01
|2023-11-01
|34.12
|34.23
|0.35
|0.38
|4.02
|4.26
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4.0%
|4.0%
|-
|2023-10-01
|34
|0.27
|4.10
|0.3%
|4.3%
|}
|}


===2. Supply chain issues===
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]


The GSCPI fell to -0.15 in December, down from 0.13 in November (revised up from an initial reading of 0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":22">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
The GSCPI rose to -0.11 in January, up from -0.15 in December. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":2">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Month
!Index
!Index
|-
|31-Jan-2024
| -0.11
|-
|-
|31-Dec-2023
|31-Dec-2023
| -0.15
| -0.15
|-
|-
| 30-Nov-2023
|30-Nov-2023
|0.13
|0.13
|-
|31-Oct-2023
| -0.38
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
*Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in November<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm</ref> as was expected<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-13/us-producer-prices-little-changed-as-energy-costs-slide</ref>.
 
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9%, lower than 1.0% estimate and 1.2% in October (revised down from 1.3%).
* Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% m/m, 0.1% was expected
*Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
* On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1%, lower than 1.3% estimate but higher than 0.8% in November (revised down from 0.9%).
*Yearly, core PPI rose 2%, lower than 2.2% estimate.
* Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
* Services index was unchanged in November, the same as in October.
* Yearly, core PPI rose 1.8%, lower than 1.9% estimate.
*Energy prices fell 1.2% in November.
* Services index was unchanged in December, the same as in November
* Energy prices fell 1.2% in December
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":02">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":04">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":04" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":04" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":12">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":12" />
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":12" />'''
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
!'''Market Reaction'''
|-
!'''Release Date'''
|2023 December
|1%
|1.3%
|0.8%
| -0.1%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|-
|-
|2023 November
|2023 November
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|0.00%
|0.00%
|0.10%
|0.10%
| -0.40%
| -0.40%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm December 13]
|-
|-
|2023 October
|2023 October
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|0.10%
|0.10%
|0.40%
|0.40%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf November 15]
|-
|2023 September
|2.20%
|1.60%
|2.00%
|0.50%
|0.30%
|0.70%
|
|October 11
|}
|}
===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]


Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI. <blockquote>"U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October”, says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital assets at S&P DJI. Our National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.”<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231226-1469868/1469868_cshomeprice-release-1226.pdf</ref></blockquote>
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.\


* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change in October, up from a 4% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase in the previous month.
For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, But After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Indestill increased 0.2 m/m. And the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month.  


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2023-11-01
|312.15
| -0.18
|5.14
|318.24
| -0.24
|5.40
|333.31
| -0.14
|6.24
|-
|-
|2023-10-01
|2023-10-01
|313
|312.71
|0.17
| 0.09
|4.77
|4.69
|319
| 319.02
|0.12
|0.10
|4.87
|4.88
|334
|333.77
|0.21
|0.18
|5.73
|5.74
|-
|-
|2023-09-01
|2023-09-01
|312
|312.43
|0.29
|0.29
|3.97
|3.98
|319
|318.70
|0.24
|0.23
|3.92
|3.94
|333
|333.17
|0.32
|0.32
|4.79
|4.82
|-
|2023-08-01
|311
|0.41
|2.54
|318
|0.35
|2.15
|332
|0.37
|2.99
|}
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
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