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Automotive Industry: Difference between revisions
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* As we edge toward the end of 2023, the global automotive market has consistently outperformed expectations monthly, leading to another increase to the forecast from 86.8 million units to 87.9 million units, an increase of 8% from 2022. The wildcards to the finish of 2023 are the U.S. market—which may be influenced by the ongoing UAW strike—and China, with a price war that is attracting more consumers into the new-vehicle market but is negatively affecting OEM margins.<ref name=":1" /> | * As we edge toward the end of 2023, the global automotive market has consistently outperformed expectations monthly, leading to another increase to the forecast from 86.8 million units to 87.9 million units, an increase of 8% from 2022. The wildcards to the finish of 2023 are the U.S. market—which may be influenced by the ongoing UAW strike—and China, with a price war that is attracting more consumers into the new-vehicle market but is negatively affecting OEM margins.<ref name=":1" /> | ||
* The lift in the forecast for 2023 has spilled into 2024, with the outlook being increased to 91.6 million units from 90.2 million. Much of the change is due to a more optimistic view of the short-term outlook in China | * The lift in the forecast for 2023 has spilled into 2024, with the outlook being increased to 91.6 million units from 90.2 million. Much of the change is due to a more optimistic view of the short-term outlook in China | ||
== Forecast 2024 == | |||
As 2024 approaches, '''S&P Global Mobility''' forecasts 88.3 million new vehicle sales worldwide next year as the recovery rolls on. <ref>https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/sp-global-mobility-forecasts-883m-auto-sales-in-2024.html</ref> | |||
''The forecast outlook incorporates stickier interest rates, improving supply chains, the affordability squeeze, lofty new vehicle prices, patchy consumer confidence, energy price/supply concerns, auto lending risks, and ongoing electrification growing pains.'' | |||
* Global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase year-over-year | |||
* Europe: For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 15.1 million units, up by 2.9% y/y - reflecting economic recession risks, tighter credit conditions, easing pent-up demand, still-high car prices, and tapering EV subsidies. | |||
* United States: US sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units. | |||
* Mainland China: For 2024, the market will continue to be supported by pent-up demand with gradual improvement of consumer confidence - which has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 2024 demand is forecasted at 26.4 million units, up a further 4.2%. | |||
* As we transition to 2024, with inventories reaching equilibrium in many markets, global production growth is expected to slip into a mild reverse as the industry navigates recovery after a tumultuous several years. For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts light vehicle production levels to decline by 0.4%, to 89.4 million units. | |||
* S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024 - accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share. | |||
== References == | == References == | ||