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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December (view source)
Revision as of 17:50, 10 January 2024
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Forecasts expect the | Forecasts expect the December CPI to show that the headline index remain aroung the same level from 3.1 in november to 3.2%They see core CPI up 0.3%, lowering the y/y rate to 3.8%. | ||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | ||
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* Food prices decline 1.8% during december, ending the year 13.7% down. | * Food prices decline 1.8% during december, ending the year 13.7% down. | ||
* Supply chain index decreased during december again, but remains stable. We have to keep monitoring the current increase in shipping rates, since it can have an impact on inflation later on. | * Supply chain index decreased during december again, but remains stable. We have to keep monitoring the current increase in shipping rates, since it can have an impact on inflation later on. | ||
* Housing prices recorded a 9th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.17% month-over-month in october of 2023 (4.7% y/y). However, rents are down 0.8% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year | * Housing prices recorded a 9th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.17% month-over-month in october of 2023 (4.7% y/y). However, rents are down 0.8% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year. | ||
* Used car prices continues with its donward pressure on prices, ending 2023 -7.0%, and -21% from the peak. New car prices are still only midly down from peak. | |||
The markets are rate cuts starting on March and 6 in total in 2024 | The markets are rate cuts starting on March and 6 in total in 2024 | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-10 111528.png|center|thumb|588x588px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | [[File:Screenshot 2024-01-10 111528.png|center|thumb|588x588px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | ||
''Range:'' | ''Range:'' | ||
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|5% | |5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI at 3.0% | |CPI at 3.0-3.1%% | ||
|1% Rally | |1% Rally | ||
| | |10% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI in line with expectations | |CPI in line with expectations | ||
|Flat | |Flat | ||
| | |50% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI | |CPI 3.3% | ||
|1-2% drop | |1-2% drop | ||
| | |30% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI above 3.3% | |CPI above 3.3% | ||