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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December (view source)
Revision as of 14:19, 10 January 2024
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Publishing date: January 11, 2024. | Publishing date: January 11, 2024. | ||
== CPI expectations == | |||
Forecasts expect the November CPI to show that the headline index remained inchanged from october, with the 12-month rate to 3.1% from 3.2% in October. They see core CPI up 0.3%, bringing the y/y to 4% same as the october rate. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
* We saw wages again surprising to the upside, increasing the y/y rate to 4.1% from 4% | |||
* Energy prices continued to decline during december. Oil ended the year -6% and gasoline -2.37%. | |||
* Food prices decline 1.8% during december, ending the year 13.7% down. | |||
* Supply chain index decreased during december again, but remains stable. We have to keep monitoring the current increase in shipping rates, since it can have an impact on inflation later on. | |||
* Housing prices recorded a 9th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.17% month-over-month in october of 2023 (4.7% y/y). However, rents are down 0.8% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year | |||
The markets are rate cuts starting on March and 6 in total in 2024 | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-10 111528.png|center|thumb|588x588px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 3.0% - 3.4% | |||
* Core CPI: 3.8% - 4.0% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.0% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.0% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|55% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.2% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|20% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.3% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | ===Consensus forecast=== | ||
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=== Individual Institutions === | === Individual Institutions === | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-10 104058.png|center|thumb|448x448px|https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1745075519199351053/photo/1]] | [[File:Screenshot 2024-01-10 104058.png|center|thumb|448x448px|https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1745075519199351053/photo/1]] | ||
<references /> | |||
== References == | |||