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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|November 2023
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|October 2023
|October 2023
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Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]


The GSCPI rose to 0.11 in November, up from -0.39 in October (revised up from an initial reading of -1.78). This major revision for October is due to a change in exchange rate weighting methodology. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":2">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
The GSCPI fell to -0.15 in December, down from 0.13 in November (revised up from an initial reading of 0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":22">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
 
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Index
|-
|31-Dec-2023
| -0.15
|-
| 30-Nov-2023
|0.13
|-
|31-Oct-2023
| -0.38
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
*October producer price index(PPI) fell 0.5%<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf</ref>, the largest decrease since April and compared to +0.1% estimate<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/us-producer-prices-decline-by-most-since-april-2020-on-gasoline</ref> and 0.4% growth in September (revised down from 0.5%).
*Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in November<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm</ref> as was expected<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-13/us-producer-prices-little-changed-as-energy-costs-slide</ref>.
*Yearly, PPI rose 1.3%, below 1.9% estimate and lower than 2.2% in September.
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9%, lower than 1.0% estimate and 1.2% in October (revised down from 1.3%).
*Core PPI was flat month-over-month versus +0.3% estimate.
*Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
*Yearly, core PPI rose 2.4%, below +2.7% estimate.
*Yearly, core PPI rose 2%, lower than 2.2% estimate.
*Over 80% of the decline in headline PPI was due to a 15.3% drop in the price of gasoline.
* Services index was unchanged in November, the same as in October.
*Services costs were flat month-over-month after rising for six consecutive months.
*Energy prices fell 1.2% in November.
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":02">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":12">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":12" />
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":12" />'''
!'''Market Reaction'''
!'''Release Date'''
|-
|2023 November
|0.90%
|1.00%
|1.20%
|0.00%
|0.10%
|  -0.40%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm December 13]
|-
|2023 October
|1.30%
|1.90%
|2.20%
| -0.50%
|0.10%
|0.40%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf November 15]
|-
|2023 September
|2.20%
|1.60%
|2.00%
|0.50%
|0.30%
|0.70%
|
|October 11
|}
===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]


Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.  
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI. <blockquote>"U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October”, says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital assets at S&P DJI. Our National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.”<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231226-1469868/1469868_cshomeprice-release-1226.pdf</ref></blockquote>
*The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a '''3.9% annual change in September, up from a 2.5% change in the previous month'''.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231128-1467726/1467726_cshomeprice-release-1128.pdf</ref>
 
*The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 4.8%, up from a 3.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, up from a 2.1% increase in the previous month.
* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change in October, up from a 4% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase in the previous month.
*Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted '''0.3% month-over-month increases in September''', while the 10-City and 20-City composites posted 0.3% and 0.2% increases, respectively
 
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2023-10-01
|313
|0.17
|4.77
|319
|0.12
|4.87
|334
|0.21
|5.73
|-
|2023-09-01
|312
|0.29
|3.97
|319
|0.24
|3.92
|333
|0.32
|4.79
|-
|2023-08-01
|311
|0.41
|2.54
|318
|0.35
|2.15
|332
|0.37
|2.99
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
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CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis


* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) averaged 120.4 points in November 2023, unchanged from its revised October level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and sugar counterbalanced decreases in those of cereals and meat.
* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.5 points in December 2023, down 1.8 points (1.5 percent) from its November level, as decreases in the price indices for sugar, vegetable oils and meat more than offset increases in dairy products and cereals. The index stood 13.3 points (10.1 percent) below its corresponding level one year ago. <ref name=":13">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>


* The index stood 14.4 points (10.7 percent) below its corresponding level one year ago. <ref name=":1">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
* For 2023 as a whole, the index recorded 124.0 points, 19.7 points (13.7 percent) lower than the average value in 2022.


{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Food Price Index
!Meat Price Index
!Dairy Price Index
!Cereals Price Index
!Oils Price Index
!Sugar Price Index
|-
|2022-12
|131.8
|112.4
|138.2
|147.3
|144.6
|117.2
|-
|2023-10
|120.4
|112.3
|111.7
|124.8
|120.0
|159.2
|-
|2023-11
|120.3
|111.5
|114.2
|121.0
|124.1
|161.4
|-
|2023-12
|118.5
|110.4
|116.1
|122.8
|122.4
|134.6
|}
===6. Energy===
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
*Oil prices declined on average 9.28% m/m in November 2023. And it had a 7.9% declined over october 2022. <ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
*Gasoline prices went down -8.2% m/m, and -10 y/y.  <ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! rowspan="2" |Date
*Natural gas prices went down on average 9.2 % m/m in september 2023, and -50.3 % y/y. <ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
Average Prices
*Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $70.67 for 2024.<ref name=":422">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Million BTU NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2023-12-01
|71.90
| -7.45
| -5.94
|3.13
| -5.55
| -2.37
|2.52
| -6.82
| -54.37
|-
|2023-11-01
|77.69
| -9.29
| -7.92
|3.32
| -8.16
| -9.96
|2.71
| -9.18
| -50.33
|-
|2023-10-01
|85.64
| -4.23
| -2.19
|3.61
| -5.82
| -5.31
|2.98
|13.08
| -47.33
|}
===7. Car Prices===
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
====Used====
*Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.1% in November from October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 205.0, down 5.8% from a year ago.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/november-2023-muvvi/</ref>
*Over the month of November, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.7%, meaning market prices were below MMR values.


*The average daily sales conversion rate was steady at 52.3%, which indicates that demand was stable and relatively strong for the time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 50.8% in November 2019.
==== Used ====
 
* Following a downward trend that began in the second half of the year, 2023 ended with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index down 0.5% in December from November. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/december-2023-muvvi/</ref>
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 204.0, down 7.0% from the previous year, a larger decline than originally expected.
* Compared to the index peak in December 2021, used-vehicle values are down nearly 21%.
* Over the month of December, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.0%, meaning market prices were just below MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 53.8%, which indicates demand was improving and relatively strong for the time of year.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle declined 0.4% over the last four weeks. Year over year, retail used-vehicle listing prices in late December were down 4.3%.
 
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
|-
|Dec-23
|204.0
|18,657
| -0.5%
| -7.0%
|-
| Nov-23
|205.0
|18,752
| -2.1%
| -5.8%
|-
|Oct-23
|209.4
| 19,157
|  -2.3%
| -4.0%
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
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